233 FXUS63 KDMX 201123 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 623 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .DISCUSSION.../Today through Thursday/ Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Key messaging highlights: * Normal to above normal temps through the period with today, Mon, and Tue the warmest days * Brisk winds Sat * Scattered showers & storms Sun night * More active period next week with prolonged chances for showers & storms Our recent high amplitude western ridge/eastern trough pattern will remain in place into the weekend keeping us in northwest flow aloft and our weather dry and mild. Temps will be warm today with plenty of sunshine and warm advection pushing highs to 70F+ in many locations. Although it won't be a major airmass change, our 140+kt jet diving into the Upper MS Valley will eventually bring the current AB/SK PV anomaly into WI by midday Saturday. Although strong thermodynamic and kinematic support will brush northeast sections tonight ahead of the feature, moisture will be sparse keeping the forecast dry. The most notable sensible weather will be temps dropping back closer to normal Saturday with brisk winds as well. Wind gusts may reach 30-35 mph north and east. There will be a pattern transition late in the weekend and early next however with lower amplitude flow, and the passage of what will be the remnants of the short wave currently off the CA coast. Its passage will bring increased warm/theta-e advection and some weaker kinematic support increasing the potential for showers and a few storms Sunday night. Although the airmass 2km and below remains fairly dry, weak well elevated scattered convection is expected to develop with better coverage south. This will exit early Monday with return flow developing ahead of the southwest CONUS upper low and strengthening southern Canada jet. The boundary to the north driven by these features will eventually sag into IA Monday night and lead to what may be prolonged chances for showers and storms next week. Confidence is not great however as the models have not had great recent run to run continuity in the details with the GFS suggesting lower upstream heights and more phasing toward the end of the period keeping the frontal passage at bay while the deterministic EC has a faster lower amplitude solution suggesting diminished precip Wednesday and Thursday. The GEFS and EPS solutions lean slightly in those respective directions but are somewhat in between keeping the front nearby with ensemble cluster analysis not leaning in any particular direction either. This will result in a low confidence forecast with varied chances for showers and storms through much of next week. Outside of a brief instability surge Monday night into Tuesday, ensemble guidance doesn't suggest too much instability increase keeping the severe weather potential lower for the time being. There is good agreement that total event rainfall may reach 1-2" however. && .AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning/ Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Skies were clear across much of central IA at 12z with nothing beyond a few spots of mid clouds. Confidence is high that this should persist through the period with VFR conditions. Winds will mainly be WNW today, become SE this evening, and then WNW-NW during the early morning hours Saturday with increasing speeds toward KMCW. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Small AVIATION...Small