278 FXUS61 KAKQ 190559 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 159 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains near the local area through Thursday bringing a gradual warming trend. Weak low pressure tracks up the coast late Thursday night into early Friday, before an upper level trough and seasonably strong cold front move through the region Friday night and Saturday. Cooler and drier conditions return Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure builds in from the northwest. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday... Evening analysis shows an upper trough slowly pushing offshore, with weak ridging centered from the TN Valley to the central Great Lakes. A fairly strong low pressure system (at the sfc and aloft) continues to track from the nrn Plains to the Midwest, while sfc high pressure is situated over the local area. Mostly cloudy skies have begun clear out as the surface high pushes just offshore of the Mid- Atlantic coast. Winds will become light out of the south by late tonight. Still, expect lows to fall into the lower-mid 40s inland/upper 40s-lower 50s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday... The above mentioned upper level ridge briefly builds over the area through Thursday as the surface high pushes farther offshore. Increasing (but still light) southerly flow Thursday should allow high temperatures to be a few degrees warmer ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s, with a few mid 70s possible in NE NC. High pressure pushes farther offshore Thursday night as a vigorous upper trough digs into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Numerical models remain rather consistent with low pressure developing off the NC coast and tracking NNE late Thursday night into Friday morning along with an axis of increased moisture in advance of the upper trough. The 12z/18 models (especially the CAMs) have trended a bit farther to the west with this feature, which would result in a fairly widespread 0.25-1.00" of rainfall east of a XSA-AKQ-ASJ line Friday morning. However, the global models still do not show that much in the way of QPF. As such, have raised PoPs some between 09-18z/4 AM-2 PM Friday but have capped most of the area at chance (except for the immediate coast). Will continue to monitor trends to see if there is better agreement with respect to the rain pushing farther inland. If trends continue in this direction, will need to raise PoPs further. Rain chances end from SSW-NNE between 10 AM-2 PM Friday as the initial low exits to the NE. Even with the (potential) morning rainfall, highs should rise into the upper 60s- lower 70s on Friday (as there will be a break in the pcpn until late aftn). The upper trough is progged to approach from the W Friday afternoon and amplify as it moves over the area Friday night into early Saturday. The trough will linger over the area Saturday (especially NE). A cold front will cross the area Friday night into early Saturday as the main upper trough begins to move across the area. As for sensible weather later Friday afternoon into early Saturday, scattered showers are expected to move across the area from W-E late Friday (mainly after 4-5 PM) into Sat morning as the cold front moves across (forecast soundings show very little instability, so have continued to leave thunder out of the forecast). Surface low pressure rapidly deepens over New England Saturday into Saturday night as the upper trough exits the area. A 20-30% chc of showers lingers behind the cold front across the NE portion of the area Saturday in closer proximity to the upper trough. A breezy W-NW wind is expected Sat aftn-Sat night as a second shortwave tracks just to our N, bringing a stronger CAA surge to the area. At the same time, the pressure gradient tightens on the back side of the low. Gusts to 25-35 mph are expected near the coast, with 20-25 mph gusts farther inland (winds inland drop off after sunset...while it remains breezy near the coast through much of the night). Mostly cloudy Saturday with high temperatures in the mid 60s NW to near 70F SE, after morning lows ranging from the upper 40s W to mid 50s E. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday... Dry conditions are expected through the period. Surface high pressure is progged to slowly build toward the region from Sunday into Monday, before potentially becoming centered near the area Monday night-early Tuesday AM and building to around 1032mb. It will be breezy in the wake of the front on Sunday, with highs ranging through the 60s. The potential for frost exists for at least across the NW as early as Sunday night/early Monday morning, but more likely Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Numerical/statistical guidance has trended a bit cooler with lows Tuesday morning, and will continue to monitor the potential for patchy frost Tuesday AM in areas near/west of I-95 (away from the urban center of Richmond). High pressure, dry conditions, and cool temperatures are expected on Monday and Tuesday with highs generally in the lower to mid 60s. Lows Monday morning range from the mid/upper 30s NW to the mid/upper 40s SE. Lows Tuesday AM range from the mid 30s west of I-95 to the MD Eastern Shore, with mid/upper 40s far SE by Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be a few degrees higher by Tue night-Wed as the low-level flow slowly turns to the south with the high pushing offshore. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Thursday... High pressure is centered over the region as of 06z. VFR under a clear sky with a calm to very light wind. Patchy fog is possible early this morning, but confidence is low of fog occurring at any given terminal. At this time, ECG has the best potential for fog with tempo for IFR vsby in the 06z forecast from 10-13z. Shallow ground fog is possible at PHF as well with brief vsby restrictions possible from 09-12z. The wind becomes SSW 5-10kt later this morning into the aftn as high pressure moves offshore. VFR with increasing high clouds and some aftn CU. Low pressure tracks up the coast tonight with some showers possible along the coast along with occasional flight restricts. Showers and occasional flight restrictions linger along the coast Friday morning. A cold front and upper level trough approach from the W Friday and push through the area Friday night into early Saturday bringing a chc of showers. Brief flight restrictions are possible with the upper trough and cold front. Clearing and drier Saturday night through Monday as high pressure builds in from the W. && .MARINE... As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday... High pressure is currently sitting over the area this afternoon. Winds are northerly or easterly around 5 kt. The center of high pressure will move offshore tomorrow, and winds will become SSE 10-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt late Thursday afternoon. Southeasterly winds of 10-15 kt will continue through Friday. However, some model guidances are indicating that a meso-low pressure system will track near the coastline, which may cause brief localized strong winds during the day on Friday. Waves will be 1-3 ft and seas 2-4 ft. A cold front will move off the coast this weekend. Small Craft Advisory will most likely be needed for the entire weekend as W and NW increase behind the front. Winds will be 20-30 kt. There is a slight possibility that some areas may see gale conditions this weekend, mostly likely for Maryland Atlantic Ocean coastal waters. Seas will build to 4-6 ft and waves in the bay 3-5 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI NEAR TERM...ERI/RHR SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...CP