468 FXUS64 KSJT 181932 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 232 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Sunny skies with gusty winds will be on tap for today. At the surface, west central Texas will be right between high pressure over the Gulf and and cold front approaching from the northwest. The resulting southerly flow should cause winds to rapidly increase later this morning, with gusts over 20 MPH possible. Given the warmer airmass and plenty of mechanical mixing, high temperatures should reach the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. The frontal boundary should reach the Big Country by late afternoon and push through west central Texas through early tomorrow morning. Winds should gradually turn out of the west and northwest tonight, but will decrease to less than 10 MPH. Under yet another night of clear skies, low temperatures should fall to the low to mid 50s, with some low-lying areas dipping into the 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Unseasonably hot temperatures are forecast across the area Friday through Sunday, with highs running around 10 degrees above normal. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows in the 60s. Tropical Storm Norma is forecast to become a hurricane late today, then track north, eventually reaching the coastal water just south of Baja California Sunday into Monday. There continue to be differences in the eventual track of the remnants of this system early next week, as the next upper level trough approaches West Central Texas from the west. The 12Z GFS is a bit weaker with the system, compared to previous runs. With all this said, as the aforementioned upper level trough approaches early next week, some of the upper level moisture associated with the remnants of Norma should get pulled into West Texas. This in combination with the approaching trough should result in an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially late Monday into Wednesday. For now, have kept PoPs in the chance category, but rain chances may need to be increased further on future shifts. The expected increased cloud cover and rain chances should result in temperatures closer to seasonal normals, with highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours. Breezy southerly winds ranging from 10 to 15 kts, and some gusts up to 25 kts are expected to diminish by this afternoon, becoming more light and variable and switching to northerly flow by Thursday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 57 85 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 53 87 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 53 86 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 53 85 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 57 85 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 53 85 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 54 85 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...TP