399 FXUS61 KAKQ 161418 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1018 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A trough lingers over the area through Tuesday with cool conditions persisting. A warmup is expected from mid to late week before a strong trough moves into the area this Friday into Saturday with shower chances increasing. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 625 AM EDT Monday... Latest sfc analysis shows low pressure NE of New England and high pressure over the Plains. Clouds were beginning to build in from the SW with mostly clear conditions to the NE. Temps as of 620 AM ranged from the upper 30s to lower 40s inland and mid 40s elsewhere. The trough remains over the area today. A lobe of vorticity rounds the base of the trough today, pushing through the Carolinas. As such, clouds increase through the day with some brief improvement possible around mid morning. Nevertheless, do expect breaks in the cloud cover and mostly sunny skies S. Highs today in the upper 50s to around 60F NW to the mid 60s SE. A second lobe of vorticity lingers over the Eastern Shore to New England tonight. This will allow for bay streamers with a few isolated showers possible mainly over the VA Eastern Shore, potentially reaching Hampton Roads. Not expecting much QPF with only a few hundredths up to a tenth of an inch possible. Clouds clear overnight inland with lows in the lower 40s SW to mid 40s NE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM EDT Monday... The trough remains over the area through Tues with cool conditions continuing. The final lobe of vorticity moves offshore Tues afternoon with any bay streamer showers tapering off by early afternoon. Partly cloudy skies again expected Tues with highs a bit warmer in the mid 60s (upper 60s in NE NC). More sunshine and warmer Wed with highs in the upper 60s to near 70F as the trough pushes offshore. Lows in the mid 40s NW to lower 40s SE Tues night and mid 40s W to upper 40s E Wed night. Although high pressure will be overhead Tues night with calm winds, soundings from the GFS and NAM show the potential for a stratus deck to develop overnight as a weak disturbance moves into the Mid-Atlantic. Confidence is higher in clouds inland with the best chance for clearing in NE NC. As such, NE NC has the best chance for radiational cooling and therefore have lowered lows into the lower 40s here as opposed to mid 40s for the rest of the inland areas in the CWA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 350 AM EDT Monday... Dry and mild Thurs as ridging builds over the area aloft and high pressure remains at the sfc. The next weather system develops this weekend (Fri-Sat) as the West Coast ridge strengthens, building into Canada. This will result in a deep trough developing across the E half of the CONUS Thurs through the weekend. The trough moves E through the E CONUS this weekend and will likely form a surface low that deepens as it lifts NE. Models continue to vary with the exact location and timing of the low with a continued trend towards a more progressive system. As such, there is increasing confidence that a coastal low develops (as opposed to an inland one) and quickly races to the NE while deepening. As such, have stuck mainly with NBM PoPs which show a chance of showers Fri into early Sat with the best chance Fri afternoon into Fri night. Sat is trending better with most of the precip moving out by the afternoon and clearing from SW to NE during the late afternoon. Dry weather returns late Sat into next week. Highs in the lower 70s Thurs, upper 60s NW to lower 70s E Fri, lower 60s NW to upper 60s to around 70F SE Sat, lower 60s NW to upper 60s SE Sun, and mid 60s (except upper 60s in NE NC) Mon. Lows in the lower 50s W to upper 50s E Thurs night, around 50F W to mid 50s E Fri night, mid 40s W to upper 40s E Sat night, and upper 30s to lower 40s NW to mid 40s E Sun night. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 630 AM EDT Monday... VFR conditions continue through the 12z taf period. Expect cloud cover (~5000 ft CIGs) to gradually increase today with the thickest cloud cover to the NW and thinnest to the SE. Cloud cover thins again tonight apart from bay streamers. Any bay streamers tonight may have MVFR (2500-3000 ft) CIGs. Winds increasing to ~10 kt with gusts to 15 kt inland and 15-20 kt along the coast today. Winds once again become light (3-5 kt) tonight. Outlook: VFR expected to prevail through Thurs. However, there may be some bay streamer clouds and possible showers Mon night- Tues across ern portions of the area, potentially affecting ORF and possibly SBY. A brief period of MVFR CIGs could occur with this activity. Another system moves in Fri into early Sat bringing the potential for showers and lower CIGs. && .MARINE... As of 1015 AM EDT Monday... Northwest winds over the Chesapeake Bay have been over-performing this morning, and continue to do so. Winds are around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. The Small Craft Advisory has been extended until 4 PM this afternoon. Winds may begin to subside late this morning and/or early afternoon, but hi-res models are indicating that there may be another uptick in winds this afternoon. SCA may need to be extended into early over night as well if the winds do begin to increase this afternoon. Winds will become N and diminish to 5-10kt on Tuesday as the pressure gradient slackens. Seas remain 3-4ft to begin today, and then gradually subside to 2-3ft tonight into Tuesday. Waves in the Bay remain 2-3ft today into tonight, and then subside to 1-2ft Tuesday. High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic coast Tuesday night into Wednesday in the wake of the upper trough. Benign marine conditions are expected as the wind becomes very light and seas/waves subside to ~2ft/~1ft. High pressure moves offshore later in the week ahead of another upper trough with the wind becoming S and remaining below 15kt. The upper trough and associated cold front push across the coast Friday night into Saturday with SCA conditions possible. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 340 AM EDT Monday... Tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical early this morning. The next high tide is the higher astronomical, and nuisance to low-end minor tidal flooding is possible at high tide this morning for the ocean-side, and locations adjacent to the lower Bay and lower James River. Farther N, the higher astronomical high tide arrives this aftn with nuisance to low-end minor tidal flooding possible for the Bay-side of the MD Eastern Shore and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. Astronomical high tides remain elevated into midweek. However, tidal anomalies are expected to gradually diminish with no additional nuisance to minor tidal flooding expected. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...RMM MARINE...AJZ/CP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...