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AXPQ20 PGUM 092133
TWDPQ 

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
733 AM ChST Tue Oct 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SIGNIFICANT/SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL CYCLONES...
Tropical Storm Bolaven is centered near 13.6N and 147.3E. Torrential
rain and isolated thunderstorms are found between 12N and 14N from
146E to 148E. Frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms cover a
larger area between 10N and 17N from 141E to 153E, which includes
northern Yap and Chuuk states and Guam and the northern Marianas
south of Pagan.

For more information please refer to bulletins from the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN32 PGTW and from the
National Weather Service under WMO headers WTPQ32 PGUM, WTPQ62 PGUM,
and WTPQ82 PGUM.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from southeast Asia across the southern
Visayas to a weak circulation near 10N136E to Tropical Storm Bolaven
to end near 13N155E. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
observed between 6N and 13N from 130E to 139E, which includes northern
Palau and lies just south of Yap.

...TRADE-WIND TROUGH...
A trade-wind trough runs from 3N165E to 15N165E. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen within 200 miles of a line from EQ157E
to 12N163E to 15N157E. This includes Pohnpei state and lies just west
of Kosrae.

...DISCUSSION...
Tropical Storm Bolaven is moving north-northwest at 15 knots, but is
featuring many trichoidal wobbles, including one right now that has it
moving straight west, which will make the average more nearly
northwest. Latest model suite is still taking it between Rota and
Tinian on average. Maximum sustained winds are currently 70 mph.
Bolaven is expected to intensify, and will likely become a typhoon
later today.

The monsoon trough is already rather strong. It's currently expected
to maintain this strength for the next couple of days, while slowly
lifting north along with Tropical Storm Bolaven. This should gradually
lift the stronger winds out of the Koror area, and closer to the Yap
area, as today continues.

The trade-wind trough will move westward with little change in
strength. It could affect the Marianas in a few days.

$$

Stanko