282 FXUS61 KPBZ 060425 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1225 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Periods of showers can be expected areawide today ahead of an approaching cold front. Much cooler temperatures, periodic scattered showers, and breezy conditions are then expected this weekend after the front crosses tonight. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Showers will spread east this morning with increasing moisture and lift along a pre-frontal trough ahead of a slowly advancing front. By daybreak, showers will be fairly widespread and persist through at least the morning before beginning to clear from the west. After a relatively brief break, eastern OH and NW PA counties will see showers return as the mentioned front begins to cross the region. With some breaks in the clouds during the afternoon and timing of frontal passage, the slightly higher instability should yield higher precipitation rates late this afternoon along the front but flooding is not a concern. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Latest guidance suggests that the frontal passage over the Laurel Highlands will be late Friday evening. Following the front, cooler temperatures and breezy conditions are likely as the upper trough deepens over the Northeast. Precipitation chances will linger into Saturday, mostly north of Pittsburgh, given remnant moisture associated with the slow moving disturbance and northwest flow prompting lake enhancement. Despite mid to low-30 temperatures and enhanced soil moisture from recent rain in the ridges Saturday night into Sunday, gusty conditions will likely disrupt frost formation. The probability of 30mph gusts is high (above 90%) in the higher terrain. By Sunday, temperatures may struggle to escape the upper- 40s/low-50s considering the range of 850mb temps are only between 1 Celsius to -2 Celsius by the afternoon. EPS, GEFS, and CMC have been consistent on the deep upper-lvl low centered over Ontario and advancing colder air south from Canada. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Confidence remains high that cool conditions will continue Monday into Wednesday as the closed upper-lvl low pivots into Quebec. As low-lvl winds shift from the west, rain shower chances may remain focused near the ridges due to upsloping. Weak ridging early Thursday may return temperature near the climatological normal. However a new disturbance in the northern Plains may also return unsettling weather late Thursday. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Line of showers with embedded thunder is crossing the area with a pre-frontal trough. Visibilities may temporarily lower into IFR range with heavier rain in this initial line, but ceilings will be slower to fall with dry air still in place near the surface. More stratiform rain behind this line will continue into Friday morning, keeping vis mostly in the MVFR/low VFR range tonight. MVFR/IFR cigs will linger into later Friday morning/early afternoon before lifting and scattering from the west with the crossing cold front. Cig restrictions may linger longer across DUJ and MGW with residual moisture and cold advection in NWly flow. .OUTLOOK... Residual moisture associated with a lingering upper-level low and cold advection under northwest flow will likely return restrictions ranging from MVFR to IFR through Saturday across the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...88 NEAR TERM...Hefferan/22 SHORT TERM...Hefferan LONG TERM...Hefferan AVIATION...Rackley/Milcarek