565 FXUS61 KPHI 300148 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 948 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic tracks towards Cape Cod where it will meander over the weekend before moving out to sea early in the new week. High pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will build into the Northeast where it will remain in control into at least the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 9:40PM...The forecast is winding down for the tonight period as coastal low pressure well offshore drifts to the northeast/east. A number of changes have been made to the forecast at this time with a new discussion below. The surface boundary/trough which affected the region earlier remains offshore. Guidance began indicating earlier that this boundary would be unable to drift back westward enough to impact the region with as much precipitation as previously thought. Most recent CAM guidance continues to suggest that the boundary will linger over water rather than drift back over our region; it is possible that the feature may not even drift back westward at all. At this time, it appears that the most impactful portion of the event is over. Thankfully, our region has been spared the impacts seen earlier in the NYC metro area and on Long Island. It is worth mentioning that CAM guidance continues to indicate that some showers will develop through the tonight period especially for our NJ counties north of I-195. So far, only light drizzle and mist can be noted on radar. It is becoming doubtful that showers will develop at all; light drizzle and mist may be the extent of the what is seen. Aided with the support of the 0z HRRR, the areal Flood Warning that was in effect has been cancelled. Forecast wise, have capped PoPs at chance through the tonight period and lowered 6hr QPF to a range of 0.01-0.25 inches. Some patchy fog may develop across the region tonight as the boundary layer remains near saturation. With winds holding 5-10 kts across the region, widespread dense fog is not anticipated. A few showers may linger Saturday, especially for NJ, mainly before the afternoon. Otherwise Saturday will look to be a rather quiet cloudy day with highs mostly in the middle to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure will meander several hundred miles south of Cape Cod over the Western Atlantic through the weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure will build into the Northeast. Lingering clouds will continue over the region through Saturday evening before finally departing after midnight. With northerly winds, drier air will finally begin to filter into the region. There still may be some lingering low level moisture that will result in patchy fog late Saturday night before lifting and dissipating Sunday morning. Sunny skies and mild temperatures on tap for Sunday and Monday with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s, and these temperatures are about 5 degrees above normal. Lows at night will generally be in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will be settled over the Northeast through the middle of the week before finally moving out to sea by Friday. A cold front approaches towards the end of the week bringing the next chance for showers. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 70s to around 80 for most of the week. Lows will generally be in the 50s to around 60. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Tonight...Low MVFR conditions giving way to IFR conditions later in the period for most sites. Periods of -DZ/BR. Forecaster confidence in timing of IFR condition development is low. NNE/NE winds winds around 10 knots. Low confidence. Saturday...IFR conditions may linger in the morning for some locations, but mainly MVFR throughout the day. Slow improvement in ceilings throughout the day; VFR conditions not looking to return until late afternoon/evening. N/NE winds around 10 to 15 knots. Low confidence. Outlook... Saturday Night...Generally VFR. Sub-VFR VSBYs in fog possible at KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KMIV/KACY. N winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence. Sunday through Sunday night...VFR. Local VSBY restrictions in fog possible at night. N winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence. Monday through Monday night...VFR. N-NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming LGT/VRB at night. High confidence. Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR. N-NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E on Wednesday. High confidence. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through Saturday over our Ocean waters. Northeast winds around 20- 25 kt and gusts around 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 feet. It should stay sub-SCA over the Delaware Bay though there will probably be some gusts to around 20 knots tonight and Saturday. Outlook... Saturday night...SCA conditions on the ocean. N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt with 5 to 7 ft seas. Sunday through Sunday night...SCA conditions on the ocean. N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 feet, subsiding to 3 to 5 feet Sunday night. Monday through Monday night...Lingering SCA conditions possible on the ocean. NE winds 15 to 20 kt on Monday, diminishing to around 10 kt at night. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Tuesday through Wednesday...NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Rip Currents... We will maintain a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous rip currents through Sunday. Breaking waves should be 3 to 6 through Sunday with a medium period easterly swell. The wind is expected to be from the northeast at 15 to 20 MPH. && .HYDROLOGY... The Flood Watch that was in effect for portions of northern and central New Jersey has been cancelled. Any additional rainfall overnight will be light, and not conducive to additional flooding. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A persistent northeast wind continues to keep water trapped along the coasts of New Jersey and Delaware. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until 2 PM Saturday for our coastal counties and along Delaware Bay. Increasing tidal departures are expected to work their way up into the upper part of Chesapeake Bay with tonight's high tide. However, water levels are forecast to remain at or just below the minor flooding threshold so no advisory seems necessary for that area. This week's full (Harvest) moon has particularly high astronomical tides associated with it. Based on the latest guidance showing a continued onshore flow into the weekend, we may see additional periods of minor or near minor tidal flooding with high tides through the weekend. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ012>014- 020-022>027. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NJZ014- 024>026. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for DEZ002>004. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for DEZ004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS NEAR TERM...Wunderlin SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/MPS/Wunderlin MARINE...Fitzsimmons/MPS/Wunderlin HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...