659 FXUS63 KGLD 251937 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 137 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 354 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2023 At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows the CWA having a northwesterly flow aloft being underneath the front portion of an upper air ridge off to the west over the Rocky Mountains with an upper air low over MN. Current surface observations and satellite imagery report dry conditions along with light and variable surface winds across the CWA underneath clear skies this morning. For the rest of Monday, forecast guidance shows the CWA's upper air flow turning more north- northwesterly underneath the ridge with the upper air low moving over the IA/MN border by the evening hours. At the surface, models show a surface high moving from western NE into northeastern KS through the day. Light and variable surface winds are expected across the CWA during the day as a result that look to turn more southerly overnight with a surface low developing in eastern CO. With dry conditions also expected for the CWA, portions along and west of KS-27 may see some possible elevated fire weather conditions in the afternoon with minimum RH values in the upper teens. However, the aforementioned light winds in the afternoon should the limit fire weather potential at this time. Daytime highs for today are forecast to be between the middle and upper 80s followed by overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Going into Tuesday, models forecast the aforementioned upper air low moving over the IA/IL border causing the ridge to take a more positive tilt in its orientation as an upper air trough in the Pacific Northwest gradually moves eastward into the Northwestern CONUS. At the surface, the CWA looks to stay dry for another day underneath the ridge with winds turning easterly by the afternoon as models show a surface low setting up in southeastern CO. Fire weather does not look to be a concern on Tuesday with minimum RH values at 20% or above are in the forecast. Tuesday's daytime high temperatures look to be in the lower to upper 80s with overnight low temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. On Wednesday, model guidance projects the axis of the ridge moving over the CWA as the low progresses over northern IN and the trailing upper air trough moving a bit more eastward in the Northwestern CONUS. Precipitation chances remain very low for a third day underneath the ridge. Breezier winds compared to the previous days are expected with portions of eastern CO seeing gusts up to around 25 kts in the evening with surface low establishing itself in southeastern CO once again. Fire weather should not be a concern on Wednesday with a better amounts of 850mb moisture entering the region from the south-southeast. The CWA expects to have daytime highs in the lower to middle 80s while seeing overnight lows in the upper 40s to middle 50s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 136 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2023 For the extended period, both the latest GFS and ECMWF continue to show the upper ridge that was over the Plains region during the midweek period, to shift eastward, forming and Omega block pattern. This is going to put a persistent southwest aloft over the area. The upper low/trough that enters from the west, will sit over the central Rockies, aiding the persistent upcoming wind regime. At the surface, low pressure sets up over the eastern Rockies ahead of the upper low, while a strong dome of high pressure sits over the eastern portion of the country. This set up will allow for southerly flow and will allow for persistent drying at least until the latter half of the upcoming weekend. From Saturday night on through next Monday, will be looking for some increased low/mid level moisture to feed into the CWA. A weak 700mb shortwave works north along the eastern Rocky slopes that may trigger some rw/trw. Some difference to the positioning of the surface ridge east that may allow for increased areal coverage of low chance pops into most of the CWA, but may just be confined to areas west, closest to the surface low/boundary. Despite these concerns, two others are expected to have better chances to impact a good portion of the area, Thu-Sun. First off, the persistent drying and lack of appreciable moisture/rain will increase the fire wx concerns, especially for areas along and west of Highway 27. Mid to upper teens for rh, combined with winds close to criteria could create elevated to near critical fire wx conditions. These may increase based on the drying from the previous day. The second concern will be the potential for blowing dust. Gusty winds in the 35-45 mph range are possible for the Thu-Sun timeframe, combined with the dry top layer of soil, could create ample blowing dust coverage, especially the eastern portion of the cwa. Local blowing dust research does show potential for this to occur, and will have to be monitored as the week progresses. The potential for blowing dust could be very impactful. For temps, the region will be looking at above normal highs on Thursday area-wide with a range from the upper 80s west through the mid 90s east. These numbers do trend downward(but remain above normal) through the remainder of the extended, with highs by next Sunday and Monday ranging mostly in the mid to upper 80s. Lows during this time will range widely with lows west of Highway 25 mainly in the 50s. East of there, mid 50s to mid 60s are expected. The overall trend is cooler as the extended progresses. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1054 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2023 Both terminals will have VFR conditions through the forecast period as high pressure continues to transition through the region. Winds for KGLD, light/variable through about 23z, then south- southwesterly around 10kts. By 13z Tuesday, a brief period of light/variable then shifting northeast. Winds for KMCK, light/variable conditions will persist through about 15z Tuesday, then becoming easterly around 10kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...076 LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...JN