535 FXUS61 KBUF 251547 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1147 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A very uneventful week of weather will be on tap for our region... as an expansive area of high pressure over northern Quebec will gradually settle to the south to New England. While some nuisance light showers will be possible across the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier today and for the Southern Tier tonight...this scenario will result in fair dry weather for these final days of September. Temperatures this week will average within a couple degrees of normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... A large area of high pressure centered over northern Quebec will combine with the still weakening remnants of Ophelia in the vicinity of the Mid Atlantic to keep a general easterly flow of Atlantic moisture in place over much of our forecast area. This will maintain a wealth of cloud cover over the western Southern Tier...while increasing amounts of sunshine will occur closer to and especially east of Lake Ontario though some fair weather cu may develop there this afternoon. There will only be a brief shower from the Finger Lakes southwest toward the Southern Tier. Otherwise...it will be a little warmer today with max temps ranging from the mid 60s across the Southern Tier to the lower 70s most elsewhere. A weak mid level shortwave heading across Ohio will brush by to our south tonight. Given the amount of leftover low level Atlantic moisture over the Southern Tier...this feature should be able to support at least scattered showers. However...dominant high pressure centered over Quebec will keep the vast majority of our forecast area rainfree tonight with only an increase in clouds. On Tuesday...the aforementioned sfc high will settle to the south a bit...taking up residency over the St Lawrence valley. This will help to suppress the cloud cover back to the south so that most areas should be able to experience improving sky conditions during the course of the midday and afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A closed low in the midst of diving south across the Midwest towards the northern Ohio Valley Tuesday night through Wednesday night along a remnant weak stalled surface boundary. Meanwhile, a strong surface ridge will lie across the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night before gradually weakening in place Wednesday and Wednesday night. Some lingering moisture along with the upper level low gliding across the frontal boundary will support a few spotty showers across the Southern Tier late Tuesday night and again on Wednesday night. Despite this, the high pressure overhead will support primarily dry weather. Heading into Thursday and Thursday night, the weak upper level low will begin to push overhead of the eastern Great Lakes. As such a surface low will dive south along the periphery of the surface high residing across the Northeast. Overall a few showers can't be ruled out across the far southwestern corner of the forecast area Thursday and Thursday night. Outside of these shower chances, the remainder of the area will remain dry. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The weak upper level low will finish its eastward sweep across the Northeast Friday before redeveloping just off the mid-Atlantic coastline this weekend. Meanwhile, a rapidly building upper level ridge overhead of the middle on the CONUS, will extend northeastward across the Great Lakes through out the end of the week and through the weekend. This all being said, the surface low will slide east just south of the New York State border and into the Atlantic. Then, with the building ridge, the surface high will rebuild across the eastern Great Lakes. Overall this will support a slight chance for some showers south of New York State Friday. However, the majority of the region will remain dry. Dry fair weather will then persist throughout the weekend. With regards to temperatures, temperatures will start off near normal with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Friday. Then, temperatures will gradually warm up into the low to mid 70s throughout the weekend. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR and lower VFR cigs will become mainly VFR this afternoon. Mainly VFR cigs tonight though the Southern Tier will see IFR to MVFR cigs. Outlook... Tuesday...IFR to MVFR across the Southern Tier in the morning. Otherwise, VFR. Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... High pressure over Quebec will maintain moderate to fresh northeasterlies throughout the Lower Great lakes into this evening. As the fair weather system moves south to the St Lawrence valley tonight...the sfc pressure gradient will weaken over the region while winds will veer to the southeast. The ensuing offshore flow will allow waves to drop off so that the remaining Small Craft Advisories on Lake Ontario will be allowed to expire. The sfc high will generally be centered over New England Tuesday and Wednesday. The resulting moderate east to northeast will direct the bulk of any significant wave action into Canadian waters... precluding the need for additional headlines over the New York nearshore waters. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ001>003. Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042-043. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...JLA/RSH SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...JLA MARINE...RSH