423 FXUS65 KABQ 202357 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 557 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 259 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Mostly dry and windy conditions will prevail Thursday for areas west of the central mountains. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern plains, with the potential of strong winds and large hail. Winds will increase further on Friday, especially across the northern mountains and east central plains. Cooler temperatures expected on Saturday areawide with the potential for the upper Rio Grande Valley to see freezing temperatures Sunday morning. A warming trend is expected through next week amongst mostly dry conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 259 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Weak radar echoes can be seen across much of west-central NM, but little if any of this rainfall is likely reaching the ground given dewpoint depressions greater than 40F. Top-down moistening will gradually saturate the mid and lower atmosphere and potentially mix down a few stronger gusts this afternoon and overnight. The 574dm low over the southern Sierra Nevada mountains will generally weaken as it continues to open and rotate around the parent trough currently in eastern Oregon and Washington. The thin axis of lift associated with the southern wave will generate a thin band of precipitation from the southwest mountains into the east-central plains this evening and overnight. A few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out, but light rain showers will be more common. Since the band of precipitation will train over the same areas, most locations will miss out on precipitation altogether. Drier air will enter from the west behind the shortwave, dropping dewpoints into the teens and low 20s across northwestern NM tomorrow. A southwesterly breeze will generally prevail, but a few stronger gusts are possible over the high terrain of western and northern NM. Meanwhile, PWATs upwards of 1" in the eastern plains will provide enough fuel for isolated storms tomorrow afternoon. The HREF is showing a greater than 50% chance of 50KT+ of bulk shear across Curry and Roosevelt counties where updrafts are most likely to organize. Wetting footprints will generally be small, but a couple cells could produce strong outflow wind gusts. Dry air from the west will end precipitation chances tomorrow evening. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 259 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2023 A large upper low moving into the Great Basin early Friday will lay the foundation for drier air along with breezy to windy conditions that afternoon. Timing of the stronger westerly flow aloft continues to not coincide with peak afternoon mixing. Additionally, the placement of the upper low will force the stronger winds to reside well to our north. This will keep the more amplified winds localized to the northern mts and the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts Friday afternoon. The stout westerly sfc winds will enhance adiabatic compression across the eastern plains, giving daytime highs a couple degree boost. As the upper low traverses the Great Basin to the Rockies Friday night, a weak Pacific front follows in its wake. This will allow temperatures to feel a bit more seasonal on Saturday, with all locales seeing a few to several degrees of cooling. A sturdy lee- side sfc low will wander into the Panhandles Saturday afternoon as sfc high pressure strengthens near the AZ and NM border. What will result is a 16 mb pressure gradient between the two, giving rise to windy conditions across the central highlands. Previous model runs had suggested Wind Advisory speeds, with the most recent suite of guidance trimming back on the idea. Given the inconsistency, did keep winds in line with the NBM for now. With exceptionally dry conditions prevailing, overnight lows into Sunday morning could dip near and below freezing across portions of northern NM via enhanced radiational cooling. This could bring the first freeze to locales within the upper RGV. As the upper low swirls into the northern Great Plains Saturday night, a weak back door front attempts to surge into northeast and east central NM. This will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air to the eastern plains but the fronts westward extent will be largely thwarted. High pressure begins building over the Desert Southwest on Sunday, setting the stage for a slow and steady warming trend into next week. Potential for pockets of moisture will exist throughout the week to initiate showers but most areas will remain dry. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 548 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2023 High-based and scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast tonight, but precipitation looks to end from the west over western then central areas by early Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will then return on Thursday mainly from the central mountain chain eastward. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on the eastern plains Thursday afternoon and early evening, where/when there will be a risk of large hail and damaging winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 259 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Light showers and a few storms are possible today into the overnight hours along a band of precipitation that will extend from the southwest mountains northeast into the eastern plains. Gusty winds may be mixed down with showers and storms but generally light southwest winds will prevail. The southwest breeze today will be a bit stronger tomorrow as a 90KT jet moves in from the west and advects in a very dry airmass. This will create elevated and briefly critical fire weather conditions in west-central NM tomorrow afternoon. High-based storms with small wetting footprints across eastern NM tomorrow afternoon may produce gusty winds and a few lightning strikes that could start fires. The area of concern on Friday will be from the Sangre de Cristo mountains eastward where downsloping will dry out the already very dry airmass. Winds will be the limiting factor for Red Flag conditions since they have trended down a tad the past couple of days in this area. Good to excellent humidity recoveries tonight will trend worse through late week then gradually improve early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 51 80 45 78 / 40 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 41 75 37 74 / 50 30 0 0 Cuba............................ 48 76 44 74 / 40 20 0 0 Gallup.......................... 45 77 40 78 / 30 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 44 75 40 74 / 30 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 43 79 39 78 / 30 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 47 76 43 78 / 20 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 53 79 52 80 / 40 10 0 0 Datil........................... 47 75 45 76 / 30 5 0 0 Reserve......................... 47 78 45 79 / 20 5 0 0 Glenwood........................ 56 82 55 84 / 40 5 0 0 Chama........................... 40 68 37 68 / 40 30 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 51 73 49 74 / 30 30 5 0 Pecos........................... 49 75 49 76 / 30 20 20 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 38 70 35 73 / 10 20 5 0 Red River....................... 37 63 36 68 / 10 20 5 0 Angel Fire...................... 35 67 32 68 / 10 10 10 0 Taos............................ 43 74 40 74 / 10 20 0 0 Mora............................ 45 73 43 75 / 20 10 5 0 Espanola........................ 50 80 47 82 / 20 10 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 52 75 51 76 / 20 10 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 51 78 48 79 / 20 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 57 82 55 81 / 30 10 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 58 84 55 82 / 30 10 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 57 86 54 85 / 30 10 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 58 84 55 83 / 20 10 0 0 Belen........................... 56 87 53 86 / 40 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 56 85 52 84 / 30 10 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 54 85 51 84 / 30 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 56 85 53 84 / 20 10 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 55 86 51 84 / 30 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 56 81 53 80 / 30 20 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 57 84 54 83 / 30 10 0 0 Socorro......................... 59 87 57 88 / 50 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 52 75 50 74 / 30 20 0 0 Tijeras......................... 54 78 51 77 / 30 10 0 0 Edgewood........................ 50 79 48 77 / 30 20 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 48 80 43 80 / 30 10 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 50 77 48 78 / 40 10 0 0 Mountainair..................... 52 78 50 79 / 50 10 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 53 78 52 80 / 50 20 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 59 81 59 83 / 60 40 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 53 74 53 78 / 60 40 10 0 Capulin......................... 51 76 47 79 / 10 20 5 0 Raton........................... 47 79 45 81 / 10 0 5 0 Springer........................ 50 82 45 84 / 10 5 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 49 78 47 79 / 20 20 5 0 Clayton......................... 60 84 56 87 / 10 10 10 0 Roy............................. 55 81 52 84 / 20 10 20 0 Conchas......................... 61 87 56 89 / 30 20 20 0 Santa Rosa...................... 59 83 56 86 / 30 30 20 0 Tucumcari....................... 61 87 58 90 / 20 20 30 0 Clovis.......................... 63 84 60 90 / 30 30 10 0 Portales........................ 64 86 62 92 / 30 30 20 0 Fort Sumner..................... 62 87 59 91 / 30 20 5 0 Roswell......................... 67 92 65 97 / 40 30 5 0 Picacho......................... 60 84 59 89 / 50 20 5 0 Elk............................. 57 81 57 85 / 40 30 20 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...44