283 
FNUS73 KLSX 190946
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Little Lost Creek...Missouri Department of Conservation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
446 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on September 19. 
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected today.
Southerly winds will increase by mid-late morning with gusts of 
15 to 20 mph late morning and afternoon. Other than some passing
thin high clouds, skies will be mostly sunny. Deep mixing will
allow for minimum afternoon relative humidity of 35 to 40 percent.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). 
Chance of pcpn......0 percent. 
LAL.................No Tstms. 
Temperature.........70 at ignition...Max 85. 
RH..................59 percent at ignition...Min 39 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south 9 to 10 mph with gusts to 17 mph. 
Eye level winds.....Winds south near 3 mph with gusts to 5 mph using
                    a 0.3 adjustment factor.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated 
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6. 
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise max 6100 ft 
                    AGL. 
Transport winds.....South 15 to 16 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /3020 m/s-m/ at ignition. Max...good 
                    /13480 m/s-m/. 

TIME (CDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   
Sky (%).........12     12     11     7      14     26     
Weather cov.....                                          
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
Tstm cov........                                          
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0      
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1      
Temp............70     79     83     85     82     74     
RH..............59     47     41     39     43     59     
20 ft wind......S 9    S 9    S 10   S 9    S 10   S 7    
20 ft wind gust.17     17     16     15     17     14     
Eye level wind..S 4    S 4    S 5    S 4    S 5    S 3    
Eye lvl wnd gst.8      8      7      7      8      6      
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4    2.4    5.1    6.1    1.3    0.5    
Transport wind..S 16   S 15   S 16   S 16   S 14   S 14   
Haines index....4      5      5      6      5      5      
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19     31     72     86     16     6      
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   GOOD   GOOD   POOR   POOR   

$$
Forecaster...Glass
Requested by...Jeff Bakameyer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2320988.0/LSX
.DELDT 09/19/23
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0