204 FXUS64 KTSA 160518 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1218 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 850 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Weak mid level troughing will slowly progress eastward across the forecast area tonight and into tomorrow morning, pushing a weak wind shift boundary into the area as well. A few very light showers/sprinkles currently moving into northeast Oklahoma are likely not producing much in the way of measurable rainfall as the lower levels of the atmosphere remain rather dry this evening. Low chances for some sprinkles will continue through the night in these areas as several ripples in the flow move around the base of the large scale trough, but not much in the way of measurable precipitation is expected through the nighttime hours. Continued mid level cloud cover associated with the trough axis will likely keep temperatures up a few degrees tonight from previous nights across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s expected across the area. Going forecast is in good shape, with just some minor temperatures adjustments noted for this forecast update. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 The aforementioned surface boundary will progress through the forecast area Saturday, with low rain chances covering much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, mainly in the morning/ early afternoon hours. While some thunder is possible, it should remain isolated given generally weak instability. As the trough continues to shift eastward Saturday night through Sunday, drier northwest flow aloft develops and a frontal boundary helps to usher in drier air at the surface. Given this, precip chances will remain minimal Sunday and Monday. Negative height anomalies will build back into the region Tuesday into Wednesday with increasing rain and thunder chances areawide. A significant upper level low then develops along the west coast Thursday into Friday with weak ridging developing across the plains and SW flow across the rockies. This will encourage the formation of lee troughing and increasing southerly winds for our area. Chances of daily convection will be possible Thursday and Friday under this pattern. A warming trend can be expected Sunday through Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s or lower 90s possible by Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Increasing cloudiness and rain chances will help keep temps in the lower to mid 80s for the remainder of the week. Temps Saturday and Sunday night may manage to cool well into the 50s for much of the area, several degrees below average. This is especially true for the typically colder spots as clear skies and light winds will enhance radiation cooling. Otherwise, lows will generally remain in the 60s through the remainder of the period, with some pockets of mid to upper 50s possible. Winds will increase the second half of next week, with breezy conditions likely during the afternoon hours Tuesday through Friday...especially across eastern Oklahoma. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 MVFR vsbys will be possible with showers moving through the area during the valid period. Otherwise, VFR elements will prevail at all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 81 58 85 58 / 30 0 0 0 FSM 84 61 87 58 / 20 10 0 0 MLC 84 58 87 56 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 80 53 84 50 / 30 10 0 0 FYV 80 53 82 50 / 20 10 0 0 BYV 78 55 79 52 / 20 10 0 0 MKO 80 58 84 55 / 20 0 0 0 MIO 79 55 82 52 / 20 10 0 0 F10 80 58 84 55 / 30 0 0 0 HHW 86 61 89 58 / 20 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...23