601 FXUS64 KEPZ 251721 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1121 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 204 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend and into next week with some limited chance across the lowlands by this weekend and late next week. A better chance for storms will be overnight Monday into Tuesday behind the passage of a cold front. The temperatures will warm to above the normal for most of the area this weekend, but will cool to below the normal on Tuesday and Wednesday after the cold front passes. The temperatures will then warm back to above the normal by the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Currently, there some clouds across the area with the showers near Salinas Peak indicated on the radar. The winds are generally light with the temperatures on the mild side for most areas. For today, conditions will be somewhat similar to that of yesterday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms developing in the mountains and then moving across the lowlands. However, unlike yesterday where the bulk of the storms moved in from northern Mexico and develop across the southern portion of the CWA, today's storms will develop in the mountains and areas mainly west of the Rio Grande. These storms will not move that quickly; thus, any storms that do develop will produce heavy rainfall that could lead to isolated flooding in the roadways with poor drainages. The PWAT values today will be between 1.10 and 1.50 inches in the lowlands, which is above the climatological normal with the dew point temperatures in the 60s. The temperatures this afternoon will be a couple of degrees warmer than what they were yesterday afternoon as high pressure centers across Oklahoma while advected warm air up from the south and into our area. For tonight, any remaining showers and storms will diminish by around midnight as the atmosphere becomes a bit more stable. As of now, the some of the latest Hi-res convective models does suggest that any lingering storms after midnight will be in the Sacs and through areas west of the Rio Grande. The winds today and tonight will be light except in areas in and around thunderstorms. With a some clouds in place and good amount of humidity, low temperatures on Saturday morning will be above the normal for most of the area. For the rest of the period, showers and thunderstorm chances will continue as the ridge of high pressure maneuvers across the country. By Saturday, this ridge of high pressure will move across Texas and New Mexico and as it does, it will cause some residual moisture to aide in a few showers and thunderstorm development mainly across portions of the northern CWA specifically the mountains areas. The temperatures on Saturday will be a degree or two warmer than what they will be on Saturday. This ridge of high pressure on Sunday will shift across New Mexico and Arizona with somewhat of a similar scenario taking place in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will develop with recycled moisture in place aiding in a few showers and thunderstorms mainly east of the Rio Grande. The high temperatures on Sunday will be similar to that of Saturday. By early next week, a cold front associated with a broad trough across the northeast will move across the area that will bring additional chances for precipitation areawide. Much of the precipitation will be behind the front, which will cause the temperatures especially on Tuesday and possibly on Wednesday to be 4 to 13 degrees below the average in the mountains and areas mainly east of the Rio Grande. These areas will be where much of the precipitation will be occurring overnight Monday into Tuesday. By the middle of next week, the center of the ridge will move across New Mexico that will limit the amount of storm coverage in the area while increasing our temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 VFR conditions through the period with skies FEW150-200. CU starting to form over the mountains, with FEW/SCT CU developing over the lowlands during the afternoon hours. Isolated showers/storms will be possible this afternoon and evening for all terminals. However, confidence is low and no mention in TAFs, TAFs will be amended as needed. Winds will be light and mainly out of the E to S in direction. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 204 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Some moisture will be in place today that will aide in showers and thunderstorm developments mainly in the mountains and areas west of the Rio Grande. The 20ft winds will be light and the temperatures below the normal for most of the area. Tonight recovery will be good to excellent. For Saturday, the moisture will decrease, but still linger enough to allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop especially in the mountains. The 20ft winds will be light and the temperatures in some areas below the normal and vice versa. For the rest of the period, there will be continued rain chances with a gradual increase in moisture. The 20ft winds will be light majority of the times with the temperatures cooling to below the normal areawide on Tuesday. With that being said, there will be no fire weather concerns across all of the zones through the period. The min RHs today will be between 30 and 35% in the lowlands and between 40 and 70% in the mountains. The min RHs on Saturday will decrease by 5 to 15% across the area. The ventilation rates will be poor to good today then poor to very good on Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 94 72 96 72 / 30 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 86 63 87 64 / 20 10 10 0 Las Cruces 91 68 94 67 / 30 30 10 10 Alamogordo 90 66 92 66 / 40 20 20 10 Cloudcroft 68 50 70 50 / 70 30 30 0 Truth or Consequences 89 67 90 68 / 40 30 30 10 Silver City 86 64 86 63 / 60 50 50 20 Deming 92 68 95 67 / 40 30 20 10 Lordsburg 92 67 94 68 / 50 50 30 20 West El Paso Metro 92 73 94 72 / 30 20 10 0 Dell City 92 67 93 68 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 93 67 95 68 / 20 10 10 0 Loma Linda 85 65 87 66 / 30 10 10 0 Fabens 92 69 95 68 / 20 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 90 69 93 68 / 30 20 10 0 White Sands HQ 91 70 93 71 / 40 30 10 10 Jornada Range 90 67 92 67 / 40 30 20 10 Hatch 93 67 95 66 / 50 30 30 10 Columbus 91 69 94 68 / 30 30 10 10 Orogrande 88 65 91 64 / 30 10 10 0 Mayhill 80 54 82 55 / 70 30 30 0 Mescalero 80 54 81 53 / 70 30 40 10 Timberon 77 54 79 54 / 60 30 20 0 Winston 80 59 82 58 / 60 40 50 20 Hillsboro 89 64 90 63 / 50 40 40 20 Spaceport 90 65 92 65 / 50 30 30 10 Lake Roberts 84 55 84 55 / 70 50 60 30 Hurley 90 66 91 66 / 50 40 40 10 Cliff 94 59 94 59 / 50 50 50 20 Mule Creek 88 62 87 63 / 50 50 60 30 Faywood 88 66 90 65 / 50 40 40 10 Animas 92 67 94 66 / 50 50 30 20 Hachita 91 67 93 66 / 40 40 20 10 Antelope Wells 91 65 93 65 / 40 40 20 10 Cloverdale 87 64 89 64 / 50 50 30 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers