037 
FXUS65 KFGZ 250845
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
145 AM MST Fri Aug 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will dwindle over the coming days as
a high pressure system moves over Arizona. Look for daytime
temperatures to climb with the bulk of shower and thunderstorm
activity confined to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...The high pressure centered over central US 
gradually beings to build westward into the southwest. Southerly 
flow returns, allowing for moisture to remain in place over 
Arizona. However, with the absence of large-scale forcing, any 
activity today will be diurnally-driven. Thus, coverage will 
largely be isolated and limited to the higher terrain of northern
Arizona, with the greatest coverage expected near the White 
Mountains.

Storm motion today will be around 5 kts, so localized flash flooding 
will remain a possibility where storms remain over the same area 
for an extended period of time. Small hail and gusty winds will 
also be a possibility with any stronger storm, however with shear
< 20 kts, organized storm modes are not expected.

Saturday and Sunday...Heights rise further as the high pressure 
center draws near. More westerly flow develops, especially the 
further north you go, and drier air begins to move in. Subsidence
aloft from the high may also further limit the upward motion 
potential needed for precipitation development. 

As a result, much drier and warmer conditions are expected over the 
weekend. The greatest chances for precipitation will mainly be 
limited to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.

Monday through Thursday...For much of the upcoming week, the high 
pressure center continue to wobble around the southwest. Moisture 
remains in place over northern Arizona, but the deep monsoonal 
moisture remains to the south. Consequently, daily chances for 
showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast, but will largely
be limited to the high terrain and isolated to scattered coverage
at best. Warm, near normal to slightly above normal temperatures 
are also expected over much of the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAF Package...Mainly VFR conditions expected 
through the TAF period. ISO to SCT -SHRA/TSRA after 17Z. Brief MVFR 
or lower conditions possible along with gusty and erratic wind gusts 
25 to 35 knots in the vicinity of stronger storms. Away from storms, 
expect light winds around 10 knots or less. Aviation discussion not 
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms expected today with even less coverage on Saturday. 
Gusty and erratic wind gusts 30 to 40 mph in the vicinity of 
stronger storms. Away from storms, expect variable winds around 5 to 
15 mph.

Sunday through Tuesday...Drier and warmer conditions expected. 
Mainly isolated showers and storms expected with the best chances 
along the Mogollon Rim through the White Mountains. Expect winds 
generally less than 15 mph away from thunderstorms. 

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff