234 
FXUS64 KSJT 191127
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
627 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023

The upper high will be centered over Kansas and Oklahoma through 
tonight and will shift a bit farther northeast by Sunday. Very 
hot and dry conditions will prevail again today, with record 
temperatures possible once again. The current records are 105 for 
Abilene and 106 for San Angelo, with current forecast highs of 107
for both locations. An Excessive Heat Warning will be in effect 
again today from 1 to 9 PM for most of the area. The exception 
will be over far southwest counties where a Heat Advisory will
be in effect, as temperatures will be a little cooler over this 
area. Temperatures will be warm again tonight, with overnight
lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023

Both the GFS and the ECMWF are in agreement that the center of the
high pressure will gradually shift off to the northeast over the
next few days. Regardless of this, Excessive Heat Warnings or Heat
Advisories are likely to be needed anyway. 

One area of disagreement remains in the mid week tropical system
rolling off the Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF brings in a more 
pronounced system with decent rainfall totals across our area. 
However, the GFS brings in a weaker system with a track that 
largely keeps most of the rain across the southern portions of our
area, but the two models are closer to agreement than yesterday. 
Confidence is very low in either solution being right or wrong. As
such, rain chances are still limited to 40 percent along I-10 and
southward for now. This is largely due to the amount of 
uncertainty in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Light winds 
this morning will become southeast and gust near 20 knots
after 18Z. Winds will diminish after 00Z. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    106  77 105  78 /   0   0   0   0 
San Angelo 107  75 105  76 /   0   0   0  10 
Junction   107  74 105  76 /   0   0  10  10 
Brownwood  107  77 107  78 /   0   0   0   0 
Sweetwater 107  77 105  78 /   0   0   0   0 
Ozona      103  74 102  76 /   0   0  10  10 
Brady      105  75 104  77 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this 
evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-
Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-by early evening. 
Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-
Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening 
for Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...24