533 
FNAK79 PAFG 160550
FWSAFG

Spot Forecast for Mosquito Creek...Northern Forestry Dispatch Center
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
950 PM AKDT Tue Aug 15 2023

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 AKDT on August 16. 
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A weather front moving over the Alaska Range Tue night will move over 
the fire on Wed. This is expected to bring wetting rain to the fire
Wed and Wed night along with a slight chance of PM thunderstorms Wed. 

High pressure is expected to build over the fire late Wed night and Thu.
This is expected to cause west winds of 15 mph from late Wed 
night into Thu, and to cause drying conditions Thu and Fri.

A weather front approaching from the west on Fri night will move over 
the fire on Sat and bring a significant chance of rain Fri night and Sat. 


.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Areas of fog 
                    early in the morning. Areas of smoke through 
                    the day. Rain showers likely. Slight chance of 
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
CWR.................62 percent. 
LAL.................2. 
Max temperature.....Around 60. 
Min humidity........60 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 7 mph after 1300. Gusty 
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. 
Ridgetop wind.......West 7 mph.  
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 2900 ft AGL late in 
                    the afternoon. 
Transport winds.....Northwest around 5 mph. 
Inversion burnoff...11 AM.  

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Areas of fog and smoke. 
                    Rain showers likely and slight chance of 
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Scattered rain 
                    showers after midnight.  
CWR.................62 percent. 
LAL.................2. 
Min temperature.....Around 45. 
Max humidity........87 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 mph increasing to 15 mph after midnight. 
                    Gusty and erratic winds 
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening. 
Ridgetop wind.......West 15 mph.  
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL overnight. 
Transport winds.....West around 15 mph. 
Inversion setup.....10 PM.  

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated rain 
                    showers in the morning. Areas of smoke through 
                    the day. 
CWR.................1 percent. 
LAL.................1. 
Max temperature.....Around 56. 
Min humidity........52 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 15 mph. 
Ridgetop wind.......West 20 mph.  
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL increasing to 3900 ft AGL in the 
                    afternoon. 
Transport winds.....West around 25 mph. 
Inversion burnoff...11 AM.  

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Areas of smoke. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the upper 50s. Southwest winds 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY...
Areas of smoke. Showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. 
West winds around 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY...
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs
in the lower 60s. Light winds. 

$$
Forecaster...BRADER
Requested by...Royce Wilber
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2317797.17/AFG
.DELDT 08/16/23
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0