004 FXUS61 KALY 102323 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 723 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and isolated thunderstorms, some with locally heavy rainfall, are expected to move across the region through the early evening hours, before clearing occurs for later tonight. Although dry, breezy and comfortable weather is expected on Friday, more unsettled weather will return for Saturday with another threat for showers and thunderstorms. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue into early next week as well. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... .UPDATE as of 722 PM EDT...The southern stream energy and cyclone has slipped south and east of the region and Long Island. The northern stream short-wave and associated moisture is finally filling in and moving across east-central NY including the Capital Region. Some rainfall rates around a half an inch an hour are possible with a few embedded rumbles of thunder. The showers should taper off between 8-10 pm. We retooled the PoPs based on the radar and CAMs trends. Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s with some patchy fog developing where the clouds clear overnight. .PREV DISCUSSION [336 PM EDT]...Large upper level low is currently north of Lake Huron over Ontario. This feature is sparking lots of convection to the east across Ontario and Quebec. Meanwhile, another disturbance (a former MCV) is lifting across the mid Atlantic and will be passing south of southern New England for this evening. Visible satellite imagery, surface observations and web cam imagery continues to show widespread clouds in place over the region. SPC mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE mainly under 1000 J/kg across our area thanks to the widespread cloud cover. Meanwhile, it is more unstable north/northwest of the area over the Ontario and Quebec (closer to the upper level disturbance) and widespread heavy showers and t-storms are ongoing over that area. Some of this activity has spread south into the northern Adirondacks and Champlain Valley, although the heaviest activity is generally staying north of the area. Some lighter showers are moving across the southern Adirondacks, but rainfall rates are mostly under a tenth of an inch per hour and thunder is limited. A few additional showers and embedded t-storms are also ongoing across western and central NY, but this activity is more scattered. CAMs suggest some of this activity will spread eastward across our northern areas this evening as well. While the threat for severe weather looks limited due to the poor lapse rates and limited instability, there could be some locally heavy downpours. Meanwhile, another disturbance will be passing by to the south. This disturbance, which is a remnant MCV, is passing across the mid Atlantic and will be moving by to the south for this afternoon. There are some heavier rain showers NJ and the NYC area, but model projections show the worst of this activity should pass by to the south. A few heavier downpours are spreading into parts of Dutchess and Litchfield Counties, with rainfall rates over a half inch per hour. Radar trends would suggest the heaviest showers/storms will stay to the south/east, but some of the isolated heavier downpours could lead to some flooding of urban and low lying areas through this evening for far southern and eastern parts of the area. Based on the hires CAMs, any precip should be winding down between 9 PM and Midnight, with all activity passing off into New England, as both disturbances move to the east. Cloud cover will decrease later in the overnight with temperatures dropping into the 50s to lower 60s. There should be enough clouds and a lingering breeze to prevent much fog from forming. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Dry and quiet weather will return for Friday in the wake of the departing storm systems. With clearing skies, it will be a comfortable day with a mostly sunny sky and decreasing humidity. There will be enough of a pressure gradient to keep a gusty westerly breeze in place through the day. Daytime temps will be in the 70s for most of the area. With a mostly clear sky and diminishing wind, temps should fall into the 50s for the area for Friday night. On Saturday, another storm system will be approaching from the Great Lakes. Both the approaching disturbance and a pre-frontal surface trough will allow for the threat for some showers and thunderstorms. Models aren't in exact agreement regarding the timing, but a broken line of convection is expected for the afternoon and evening hours. Decent instability should be in place (CAPE values about 1000-2000 J/kg) and fast mid level flow will allow for enough shear (about 30-40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear), so there will be a threat for some stronger thunderstorms, depending on the exact timing of the forcing. Outside of the convection, it should be partly sunny and more humid than Friday, with daytime temps reaching into the low to middle 80s. The threat for some lingering showers may continue into Saturday night with the upper level low passing by to the north. Outside of the precip threat, it will be mostly cloudy with lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A few showers could linger into Sunday morning depending on the exact timing of the passing disturbance. Otherwise, skies will be clearing through the day on Sunday with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Dewpoints will be fairly high to start the day but may finally start dropping towards evening. Dry and quiet weather is expected for Sunday night into most of Monday, but another storm system will be approaching for late Monday/Monday night into Tuesday. This will be another closed low lifting from the Great Lakes towards the Northeast, but models seem to suggest that low will be starting to open up and weaken as it heads towards the Northeast. It's still unclear if a secondary coastal surface low may develop as well. Either way, the threat for showers and possible thunderstorms should be in place for Monday night/Tuesday and the muggy air mass could allow for some heavier downpours. Behind this system, drier weather looks to return for the middle portion of the week. Otherwise, temps will be close to normal for early next week, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s and lows generally in the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Scattered showers are tracking across the terminals this afternoon with breaks of dry time in between. Showers are falling from a high cloud deck so VFR ceilings will likely be maintained through early evening. However, a few enhanced areas of rain and even some embedded thunderstorms are possible between 20 and 00 UTC today so included a TEMPO group for potential MVFR visibility at ALB, PSF and POU. Included VCTS at GFL starting at 21 UTC through early evening where convection has been tracking through the southern Adirondacks. A line of strong thunderstorms currently in southern Canada is approaching the US border and should continue tracking eastward early this evening. Guidance is in good agreement that this should diminish with the loss of daytime heating so we show dry conditions by 03 UTC for the terminals; however, should this line hold together and be maintained, we may need to extend our shower and thunderstorm mention through this evening. Assuming the aforementioned Canadian storms do not reach our area, we should see skies quickly clear by 03 - 05 UTC with clear skies overnight. Some patchy fog may develop at GFL and perhaps PSF towards early morning (08 - 11 UTC) but we only had enough confidence to show fog at GFL. Clear skies through the end of the TAF period. South to southeast winds sustained 8 - 12kts through this afternoon then turn light and variable tonight. However, winds could be just strong enough to reduce fog formation towards the pre-dawn hours. By 13 - 15 UTC, westerly winds should increase and turn breezy with westerly winds ranging 10-18kts with gusts up to 20-25kts. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula NEAR TERM...Frugis/Wasula SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Speciale