511 
FXUS64 KMAF 041742
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1242 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Another heatwave is upon us unfortunately. This morning is going 
to be rather warm with middle to upper 70s for many and 60s in the
mountains. Heading through today, the upper-level ridge begins to
slide back to the west and strengthen over the southern Great 
Plains and Desert Southwest. Temperatures respond accordingly by 
climbing a few degrees areawide. Low 100s will be commonplace with
upper 90s in the mountains. Heat Advisories have been issued for 
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains down to Big Bend as well as Eddy
and Mitchell Counties as a result of the returning very hot 
weather. Isolated thunderstorms remain in the forecast across the 
western higher elevations and for portions of the southeast New 
Mexico plains. This activity quickly dissipates after sunset. 
Saturday morning remains warm once again, offering little reprieve
from the heat. Widespread low temperatures in the 70s can be 
expected. Temperatures increase further Saturday afternoon as the 
ridge continues to build. Widespread middle 100s are likely with 
many locations likely needing heat products in later forecasts. 
Precipitation chances across even the mountains likely come to an 
end as large-scale subsidence takes hold. This really has been the
summer of heat that won't quit. Be sure to take adequate heat 
safety precautions if you must go outdoors into this heat

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

An upper ridge axis will remain oriented along the US/Mexico
border next week causing temperatures to steadily rise, easily 
reaching into the triple digits for all but the higher elevations
of the Davis and Guadalupe mountains. In addition, with dewpoints
struggling to get above 50 degrees west of the Pecos River the
chances for even isolated mountain convection will be pretty slim
next week. Heat stress will be a problem and expect the Heat
Advisory to expand in time and areal coverage with Excessive Heat
Warnings possible by Wednesday. Everyone should limit their
exposure outdoors and drink plenty of fluids if in the heat.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

VFR with some afternoon cu possible. S to SE wind. Storms today 
and tonight should stay west of the Pecos and not affect any TAF 
site.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               79 105  78 106 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                 76 105  75 105 /  10   0   0   0 
Dryden                   75 105  75 106 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton            76 105  77 107 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           75  98  75  98 /  10   0   0   0 
Hobbs                    75 104  75 102 /  10   0   0   0 
Marfa                    66  99  66 101 /  20  10   0  10 
Midland Intl Airport     78 103  78 106 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                   79 104  78 106 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                     78 106  78 108 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central 
     Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis 
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Guadalupe and Delaware 
     Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Mitchell.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...72