737 FXUS63 KGID 040927 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 427 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 Key Messages: * Patchy dense fog will continue to impact portions of south central Nebraska through around 9 AM. * Weakening thunderstorms across north central Kansas this morning will be capable of wind gusts around 40 to 50 mph...with an additional round of potentially severe thunderstorms this evening expected to impact areas primarily west of Highway 281. * Severe weather will be possible again Saturday afternoon and evening...primarily along and ahead of an approaching cold front. * A cooler and breezy finish to the weekend is in store for the local area with off and on chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing through at least the middle of next week. Patchy dense fog developed across much of south central Nebraska early in the night and is continuing to plague much of the I-80 corridor from roughly highway 281 east. Could see some minor improvement over the next couple of hours as outflow from storms to our south and west attempt to mix the lower layers some and improve visibilities. 08Z HRRR indicates this denser fog will likely break up over the next 3-5 hours...and presently have a dense fog advisory in effect through 9 AM CDT...although may be able to trim some of the edges of this advisory over the next few hours if improvement continues. Focusing on the storms to the south...models originally tracked a much larger complex of storms across the local area capable of producing severe weather early in the night...but eventually backed off significantly late in the night...with just a cluster of mainly non-severe storms now bringing some beneficial rainfall to much of north central Kansas. Expect this activity to continue to weaken as it tracks east through the morning hours...with a mostly dry and at least partly sunny afternoon anticipated across the local area. With additional sunshine expected this afternoon...increased forecast temperatures by a degree or two across much of the area...although they still remain slightly below normal for early August. Later this afternoon and into the early evening hours...models key in on another disturbance to our west which is forecast to reach western fringes of the local area during the early evening hours. With moderate instability and modest shear in place...could see some severe storms especially early in the evening...and a slight risk for severe weather now extends across areas mainly west of Highway 183...with a more marginal risk further east. Some larger hail will be possible with the initial storms...with the main threat eventually transitioning to severe thunderstorm wind gusts as the complex tracks further east during the late evening hours. One more more day with a significant potential for severe weather is anticipated on Saturday as temperatures climb and instability builds ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will eventually have the potential to trigger a line of severe storms late in the day and through the early evening hours as it crosses the local area...and just about the entire area is in a severe risk for severe weather from the storm prediction center. Given the timing of the front around and just after peak heating...large hail and severe wind gusts will both be possible. Thereafter...a much anticipated cooldown along with breezy northwesterly winds are expected on Sunday...with a fairly active west northwest flow pattern aloft likely providing additional chances for showers and likely non-severe thunderstorms through at least the middle of next week...along with maintaining below to near normal temperatures across the local area. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 Light BR with MVFR VSBYS is currently being reported at KGRI...and expect this possibility to continue through the overnight hours as light east-southeasterly flow and a minimal temperature/dewpoint spread continues. Looking to the west...expect the line of thunderstorms to continue to approach both terminals over the next few hours...bringing at least a VCTS/SHRA at both sites after about 04/08-09Z. Continue to think this activity will weaken as it tracks into a slightly less favorable environment as it reaches the terminals...but some strong wind gusts of 30-40KTS will be possible...although they were to included in the actual TAFs due to their uncertainty. TSRA activity should diminish around sunrise...with some SHRA activity hanging around through the late morning hours...with VFR CIGS returning around midday...before another round of showers and thunderstorms reaches the terminals during the mid to late evening hours Friday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ040-041- 047>049-062>064-075>077. KS...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Rossi