604 FXUS64 KMOB 311708 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1208 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 VFR conditions prevail across the forecast area through Tuesday. A stray shower or storm is possible near the coast as the sea breeze pushes inland which could produce a temporary reduction in ceiling and/or visibility. MM/25 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Hot conditions will continue today through Tuesday, but chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be minimal. A slightly drier airmass has filtered into the region in the wake of the line of showers and thunderstorms that sagged south across our area yesterday, and a frontal boundary sagging into the area from the north today will allow for slightly lower dewpoints than previously expected to persist today and likely into Tuesday as well. Daytime highs both today and Tuesday will still be quite hot, mainly in the mid to upper 90s over most of the area each day, except for low to mid 90s along the immediate coast. We have been undercutting the dewpoint temperatures in the forecast for the past several days as guidance has been running high on those, however it appears now that they could be even slightly lower than what we have previously been expecting (down into the middle 60s today for interior south central AL). PWAT's today, for the most part now generally expected to be in the 1.2 to 1.4 inch range across the area. Even though high temperatures today will still be very hot, due to the lower moisture content of the airmass, heat indices are now expected to range from about 98 to 104 degrees this afternoon. Since these heat indices are now expected to be below 108 degrees, the Heat Advisory for today has been cancelled for most interior areas of southwest and south central AL. We will maintain the Heat Advisory for all of our southeast MS counties, as well as a part of southwest AL and all of the western FL panhandle for today (although even there heat index values look to be only borderline). For the areas that continue to be under the Advisory, expect heat index values to top out in the 103 to 110 range today. The immediate coast could see a brief spike up closer to 110 late this afternoon as the sea breeze boundary moves inland. There is the potential for afternoon dewpoints to mix out even more than forecasted that would result in lower heat indices over the forecast area, although confidence decreases with coastal and southwestward extent of the forecast area. Dewpoints over interior locations may be even lower on Tuesday (possibly low to mid 60s), so it no longer looks like a Heat Advisory will be required for tomorrow. Otherwise, with the drier air in place, only looking for isolated showers and storms this afternoon, and mainly over our southern area where moisture will be slightly higher and low level sea breeze forcing will be present. Any showers and storms that do develop this afternoon will end by early evening. It looks like most of the area will be rainfree tomorrow, so for now we will not carry any PoPs for Tuesday. /12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 75 98 77 97 78 95 77 94 / 0 10 0 30 0 40 20 40 Pensacola 77 99 80 95 79 93 79 94 / 0 10 10 30 10 50 20 40 Destin 80 96 81 93 81 90 79 91 / 0 10 10 30 10 40 20 40 Evergreen 71 97 71 97 74 94 75 93 / 0 0 0 20 10 50 20 50 Waynesboro 72 96 73 98 75 98 74 94 / 0 0 0 10 10 40 20 30 Camden 72 95 71 95 75 93 74 91 / 0 0 0 10 10 50 20 40 Crestview 71 98 73 98 76 94 75 94 / 0 10 0 30 10 50 20 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-261>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob