308 
FXUS65 KLKN 250454
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
954 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms  
continue across portions of central and eastern NV through 
Wednesday, while temperatures remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal. 
Dry across the region Thursday through Sunday. 

&&

.UPDATE...Expired the Excessive Heat Warning which was in effect
for Southeastern Elko County through 9pm this evening as
temperatures are expected to trend slightly cooler (though still
above normal levels) tonight into mid-week. The Red Flag Warning
for fire weather zone 437 in western Humboldt County is expiring
at 10pm due to diminishing winds this evening. No other changes to
the forecast at this time. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 123 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2023/ 

SYNOPSIS...Showers, thunderstorm chances, heat and fire weather 
concerns for the Silver State as a cool front pushes through this 
evening. However, the shower chances will start to wane by mid 
week as the upper ridge tries to build back westward, cutting off 
our moisture feed.

SHORT TERM...A weak disturbance traversing the flow along the
periphery of the upper ridge, and ahead of the upper level trough
located near Vancouver Island, will help push a cool front through
the northern half of NV Monday as indicated by a weakening line of
showers stretching from central Lander/Eureka counties north into
Elko county. This boundary will be stalling and washing out over
central NV Tuesday. There looks will be enough upper level
dynamics and surface heating to develop scattered thunderstorms
for Monday across E NV, and few isolated showers and thunderstorms
across far E NV Tuesday. The main hazard for storms that do form
Monday and Tuesday will be gusty outflow winds as storms collapse,
as with the inverted V profile D CAPE values will be in the 1200
J/kg range. Winds could gust to 50 MPH or even higher which could
cause damage to unsecured objects and property. Model soundings of
the lower levels show a strong inverted V profile with dry air at
the surface, which is very typical for this time of year. The
focus will be on a mid level moisture plume that is wrapping
around the departing upper ridge. Models show that this evening
holds the best chance for rainfall accumulation as PW values of
around 0.75’ to 1.25” are forecast but with the dry lower levels,
only light amounts of up to 0.05” to 0.25” can be expected.
However, there will be a sharp cutoff for storm development as the
front pushes through with PW values drop to below 0.3”. Also a
concern will be fire weather for Humboldt county, with the front
expected to be along the Lander/Eureka border by 00Z, winds behind
the front will pick up out of the west at 15 to 25 MPH with gusts
up to 35 MPH, this will be combined with RH values in the 5% to
15% range. Even though fuels in the area are not fully cured the
timing of the winds with the low RH will make for critical
conditions, and a Red Flag warning is in effect for Humboldt
county. Tuesday, look for more isolated thunderstorms across the
eastern US 50 corridor as the decaying front pools the best
moisture here. Temperatures with the clouds and possible
showers/storms will be cooling off a bit as Highs in the upper 80s
to upper 90s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s for
most, with the exception of SE Elko county which will see lows in
the low 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday. 

The Great Basin region will be wedged between low pressure to the
NW and high pressure over the four corners region through 
Saturday. Mid-level moisture and weak to moderate instability over
portions of eastern NV will result in a mix of dry and wet 
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and early evening. There will be
a 15-25% chance of showers and thunderstorms over eastern White 
Pine county Wednesday, with a 10-15% chance of showers and 
thunderstorms across eastern Elko county. High temperatures will 
trend a degree or so cooler across the region on Wednesday, though
still remain 5-10 degrees above normal with highs 90s for the
valleys. Latest ensembles show partly to mostly cloudy skies 
across all but Humboldt county Thursday afternoon, with only the 
far NE corner of Elko county having a slight chance (5-15%) of 
showers and thunderstorms. Friday through Saturday the moisture
departs NV leading to fair and dry conditions. High pressure 
builds up from the desert SW on Sunday and Monday bringing mid 
level monsoonal moisture into the silver state starting on Monday.
This moisture and associated unstable conditions will generate a 
10-20% chance of thunderstorms, mainly over and near the southern 
portion of White Pine county. 

AVIATION...VFR will be prevailing across the northern and 
central NV for the rest of today and for Tuesday. The exception to
this is blowing dust that can be kicked up either by the winds or
from showers and thunderstorms that can lead to brief localized 
areas of MVFR or less conditions. Virga, rain showers, and 
thunderstorms are occurring in eastern and central NV today and 
will persist into the early evening and then dissipate after 1800 
today. KBAM, KEKO, KELY, and KTPH will be the terminals that can 
see this convective activity. There is a low <10% chance that some
of this activity may persist in White Pine county to 2300. The 
main threat from any virga, rain showers, or thunderstorms will be
erratic and strong outflow winds which can reach to 45-50KT, this
is similar to what has been seen past few days. The general winds
will be gusty across the silver state today with speeds of 
20-25KT and gusts 30-35KT, KWMC will see the strongest of these 
winds.

FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning for fire zone 437 remains in
effect through 10 PM PDT this evening. A cold front has pushed
into zone 437 and by this evening will be making its way trough
zones 438, 424, and 427. Winds behind the front will pick up out
of the west at 15 MPH to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH.
Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to upper 90s which will
help drive RH values down to around 5% to 15%. Even with fuels not
being fully cured at all levels, given the timing and duration of
the low RH/high winds the conditions meet critical fire weather
criteria for Zone 437. Conditions are expected to improve during
the overnight hours Tuesday morning as RH values rise above 25%,
Conditions Tuesday will be better with winds 10 MPH to 20 MPH and
RH in the 10% to 20% range.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. 

&&

$$

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