267 
FNUS75 KFGZ 201650
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Walton Ridge...Fort Apache
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
950 AM MST Thu Jul 20 2023

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1000 MST on July 20. 
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the 
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ.

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

*The hot temperatures continue today with breezy westerly winds.
Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms near the fire site
this afternoon with the main threats of lightning and gusty
and erratic outflow winds.

*Another hot day is likely on Friday with even greater chances
for scattered showers and thunderstorms at the fire site as 
moisture increases.

*Long Range Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms are forecast 
each afternoon and evening from this weekend and into next
week as moisture increases and temperatures cool. Wetting rains 
are likely at the fire site each day.
  
.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Isolated 
					to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected 
					after 1200 MST. 
Chance of pcpn......20-30 percent. 
Max temperature.....86-89. 
Min humidity........15-18 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........West-northwest winds 5-10 mph with gusts up to 
					18 mph. Erratic outflow winds of 30-40 mph are 
					expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
LAL.................3. 
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth. 
Max Vent Rate.......Good. 
Clearing Index......490. 
Mixing height.......13900 ft AGL in the afternoon. 
Transport winds.....West around 10 mph. 

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms 
					ending around 1900 MST. 
Chance of pcpn......20 percent to 0 percent after 2000 MST. 
Min temperature.....60-64. 
Max humidity........45-50 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 4-8 mph, becoming east-northeast
					by midnight.  
LAL.................2. 
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated 
                    fire growth. 
Min Vent Rate.......Poor. 
Clearing Index......2. 
Mixing height.......50-100 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph, shifting to the east 
                    overnight. 

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny in the morning, becoming cloudy in the 
					afternoon. Chances for scattered showers and
					thunderstorms by 1200 MST.
Chance of pcpn......50-55 percent. 
Max temperature.....86-89. 
Min humidity........16-20 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5-10 mph, becoming west 10-15 mph
					in the afternoon. Erratic outflow winds of 
					30-40 mph are expected in or near storms.
LAL.................3. 
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated 
                    fire growth. 
Max Vent Rate.......Very good. 
Clearing Index......736. 
Mixing height.......7200 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 
                    15400 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 10 mph shifting to the southwest 
                    in the afternoon. 

$$
Forecaster...LAGUARDIA
Requested by...E5268
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2317186.0/FGZ
.DELDT 07/20/23
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL azsdc@firenet.gov