424 FXUS64 KCRP 180802 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 302 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 High pressure anchored over the Four Corners will continue an eastern expansion across South Texas. This will lead to even hotter temperatures for today, with highs in the 90s along the coast to near 110 across the Brush Country. Heat Advisories are in effect this afternoon and early evening for most of South Texas as heat index values reach 110-114. Heat indices are likely to exceed 115 across the inland Coastal Bend so an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for this afternoon and early evening. While we have limited the Excessive Heat Warning to San Patricio, Nueces, and Kleberg counties, it is possible that others could experience localized or brief heat index values that reach or exceed 115. Wednesday looks like a repeat of today, with Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings likely. While heat has been the main story, elevated fire weather conditions are possible for today and Wednesday. Low relative humidity values (15-35%), high temperatures, dry to critically dry fuels, and breezy afternoon winds (gusts 20-25 mph) could lead to rapid fire spread. Even if winds are lower than anticipated, rapid fire growth will be possible. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Afternoon maximum heat index values 110 to 115 will continue daily into early next week as the ridge elongates east-west through the week, likely resulting in additional Heat Advisories (40-70% chance). The ridge will push slightly to the NW near the Four Corners this weekend, allowing for a broad mid-level trough from the Great Lakes region to drag into East Texas. This feature combined with a weak tropical wave moving westward across the Gulf towards the eastern Mexico Coast will lead to our next rain chances as PWATs increase to near 2.0". Kept the 20-30% chance of showers and storms over the Coastal Plains during the day Saturday through Monday. Due to lack of lift support aloft, thinking most of the activity will be focused over the waters where CINH is weakest and additional development along the sea breeze inland. Putting this event into perspective... both the North American Ensemble Forecasting System (NAEFS) and the ECMWF Ensembles show 850- 700mb temperatures exceeding their climatological max along the Texas Coast through Friday, before going down to the 99.5th percentile during the weekend into early next week. Also due to the combination of recent dryness and above-normal temperatures, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has majority of South Texas in a rapid onset drought risk next week from July 25 through July 31. Probability of max temperatures over 100 is 50 to 100% from the inland Kleberg up to Bee County westward respectively every day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle, with brief periods of MVFR ceilings/visibility for ALI and VCT from 09Z to around 13Z. Otherwise, winds will increase through the afternoon with gust to near 25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Weak to moderate south to southeasterly flow is expected daily. Winds are expected to become more moderate in the afternoons and evenings across the southern Bays and Nearshore Waters. There is a 20 to 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day Saturday through Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 99 78 97 79 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 101 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 108 78 108 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 105 76 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 92 80 93 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 109 78 109 79 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 103 77 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 92 81 90 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>234-239>241-245>247-346-347. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242>244-342>344. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LS/77 LONG TERM....EMF/94 AVIATION...LS