037 FNUS74 KEPZ 162330 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for Clopton...Gila National Forest National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 530 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MDT on July 16. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .DISCUSSION... Very hot temperatures Monday through Thursday with light and terrain driven winds through the period. Afternoon moisture levels will drop allowing min humidity values in the low teens each afternoon. Every afternoon evening thunderstorm chances will exist, increasing the dry lightning threat. Local wetting rains should be seen with these storms. Gusty winds will be seen with outflows in the evening hours. Overnight recoveries will be healthy each morning. .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) slight chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Chance of pcpn......15 percent. LAL.................3 until 2400, then 1. Min temperature.....Around 73. Max humidity........40 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 6 mph shifting to the west 6 to 10 mph overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the evening and overnight. Mixing height.......11500 ft AGL decreasing to 100 ft AGL in the late evening and overnight. Transport winds.....East around 5 mph shifting to the south around 1 mph in the late evening and overnight, then shifting to the west around 3 mph overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (57400 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (100 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........36 36 47 49 49 59 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC NONE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC NONE Chc of pcpn (%).15 15 15 10 10 5 LAL.............3 3 3 1 1 1 Temp............97 88 82 79 77 74 RH..............20 24 30 36 46 49 20 ft wind......SE 6 SE 6 S 6 W 6 W 6 W 7 20 ft wind gust.9 9 12 13 13 13 Mix hgt (ft)....11500 11500 100 100 100 100 Transport wind..E 5 E 5 S 1 S 1 W 3 W 3 Haines index....3 4 4 4 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..57 57 0 0 0 0 Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR .MONDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. LAL.................1 until 1400, then 3. Max temperature.....Around 102. Min humidity........13 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 9 mph shifting to the south around 6 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL increasing to 16000 ft AGL in the late morning and afternoon. Transport winds.....West around 12 mph shifting to the east around 4 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12500 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (70400 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........32 32 6 10 10 30 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE S CHC Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 10 20 30 LAL.............1 1 1 1 3 3 Temp............73 82 91 98 100 102 RH..............53 41 30 21 16 13 20 ft wind......NW 6 NW 6 NW 9 W 7 W 7 S 6 20 ft wind gust.15 15 16 15 15 12 Mix hgt (ft)....1000 1000 13500 13500 16000 16000 Transport wind..W 12 W 12 N 7 N 7 E 4 E 4 Haines index....3 3 3 3 4 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..13 13 48 48 70 70 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR FAIR FAIR GOOD GOOD .MONDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of showers in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms late in the evening. Chance of pcpn......40 percent. LAL.................5 until 2100, then 3 until 2400, then 1. Min temperature.....Around 72. Max humidity........48 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Mixing height.......14900 ft AGL decreasing to 100 ft AGL in the late evening and overnight. Transport winds.....East around 5 mph shifting to the southwest around 4 mph in the late evening and overnight, then shifting to the west overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Good (74300 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (300 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM Sky (%).........42 41 44 23 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE NONE NONE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 10 10 LAL.............5 3 1 1 Temp............100 85 79 74 RH..............15 24 33 42 20 FT wind......SW 7G13 W 8G15 NW 5 NW 5 Mix hgt (ft)....14900 14900 100 100 Transport wind..E 5 E 5 SW 4 W 9 Haines index....5 5 5 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..74 74 0 0 Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD POOR POOR .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. LAL.................1 until 1500, then 3. Max temperature.....Around 103. Min humidity........12 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph shifting to the southwest around 7 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......700 ft AGL increasing to 16400 ft AGL in the late morning and afternoon. Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 13 mph shifting to the south around 1 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8200 knot-ft). Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM Sky (%).........21 12 6 Weather cov.....NONE NONE S CHC Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 20 LAL.............1 1 3 Temp............72 91 103 RH..............48 26 14 20 FT wind......NW 5 NW 5 W 5G10 Mix hgt (ft)....700 15000 16400 Transport wind..NW 13 N 5 S 1 Haines index....4 4 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..8 27 39 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY... Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Highs around 104. Northwest winds 8 to 10 mph. .THURSDAY... Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Highs around 102. North winds 9 to 12 mph. .FRIDAY... Partly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Highs around 101. Northeast winds around 10 mph. $$ Forecaster...DHUYVETTER Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2316956.0/EPZ .DELDT 07/16/23 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov