903 FXUS64 KSJT 151121 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 621 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 129 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 A weak cold front is expected to move down through the Big Country this morning and stall around the Colorado City to Winters to Brownwood area. The lift provided by this front could combine with some moisture and instability to create a few small showers/t-storms late this afternoon and early evening in and around the area of the stalled front. The front will also create conditions this afternoon that are not quite as hot in the Big Country, with highs in the mid to upper 90s there. However, the 850 mb thermal ridge will remain strong south of the front, so Heat Advisories will remain in effect this afternoon and early evening for the Concho Valley, Heartland, Northern Edwards Plateau and Northwest Hill Country, where highs in the 101-105 degree range are expected. Tonight, expect another mild night with lows in the mid to upper 70s. A mesoscale convective system from the TX Panhandle will likely move southeast into North TX late tonight, with some of this thunderstorm activity possibly impacting the northern Big Country after midnight. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms in the Big Country related to this potential activity, with damaging winds being the main hazard. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 351 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 A high pressure system will continue to sit across the southwestern U.S. and keep high pressure aloft across our region as well. This will leave mostly hot and dry conditions in place for the long term. Expect slightly cooler temperatures across the Big Country over the weekend as a weak cold frontal boundary will drop temperatures a bit. Otherwise, the triple digits will largely remain in place. Heat Advisories may be needed again early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 There is a slight chance of TSRA/SHRA between 21Z today and 03Z Sun in the northern Concho Valley/northern Heartland and southern Big Country where a stalled front is expected to be. Then, a complex of TSRA is likely to move through the central and northern Big Country counties after 06Z Sun. Any TSRA/SHRA could bring tempo IFR/LIFR conditions in brief heavy rain and strong downdraft winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through 12Z Sun. Winds will generally be 10 KT or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 98 75 97 75 / 20 20 0 0 San Angelo 105 76 103 76 / 10 10 0 0 Junction 103 74 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 103 76 101 75 / 10 20 0 0 Sweetwater 98 74 99 76 / 10 20 0 0 Ozona 102 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 103 76 101 75 / 10 10 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Coke-Coleman- Concho-Crockett-Irion-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Sterling-Sutton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...SJH LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...SJH