583 FXUS64 KSJT 100546 AAB AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1246 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 The main highlight in the short term is the issuance of a Heat Advisory over the Concho Valley and Heartland for Monday afternoon and evening. High pressure will be continuing across the region allowing temperatures to climb back into the triple digits. Some locations will have heat index values up to 108 degrees due to a combination of the heat and humidity values. High temperatures && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023 ...Very Hot Temperatures this Week... The main story for the long term will be very hot and dry conditions for the upcoming week. Upper level high will strengthen and expand across the Desert Southwest into West Texas this week, resulting in dry and very hot temperatures through the extended period. The exception to the dry forecast will be Monday night across the Big Country. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across northern portions of the Big Country, as a short wave tracks southeast across north Texas. The potential is there for a few strong to severe storms Monday night, with large hail and damaging winds possible. Otherwise, expect daytime highs between 100 and 104 degrees on Tuesday, climbing into the 101 to 106 degree range Tuesday through Friday. These temperatures will result in Heat Advisories and possibly Excessive Heat Warnings for portions of the area this week. Slightly cooler temperatures are possible by next weekend, && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Generally expecting VFR conditions to prevail through the next 24 hours, but monitoring a couple of items for KABI. A weak, nearly stalled out frontal boundary extends from just south of Sterling City to just south of Brownwood. Moistening of the boundary layer north of this front overnight may lead to patchy low cloud development over the Big Country. While there is an outside chance that KABI could be briefly affected by MVFR ceilings around 12Z, confidence is too limited to include a low cloud mention at this time. Nevertheless, will monitor satellite trends overnight. With the arrival of a weak disturbance aloft into Texas from New Mexico later today, may have a cluster of thunderstorms move east-southeast into the Big Country tonight. This may potentially affect KABI in the 03Z-06Z time frame. Winds at KABI are from the east-northeast initially, but expect a shift to mainly south winds by mid-to- late morning as the boundary lifts north. For our other TAF sites, mainly south winds are expected through the next 24 hours with generally clear skies. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 77 99 78 101 / 20 0 0 0 San Angelo 77 104 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 76 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 77 101 77 104 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 77 101 79 104 / 10 0 0 0 Ozona 76 101 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 77 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Irion-McCulloch-Runnels-San Saba- Sterling-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...19