841 FXUS61 KBGM 072001 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 401 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread showers and thunderstorms with a cold front will exit to the east late this afternoon and evening. The cold front will stall out and bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday, mainly east of I-81. More showers and thunderstorms are likely Sunday with a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 230 pm update... Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms moving through now with and ahead of a slow moving cold front. Potential for flash flooding with training and slow moving storms. High pwats, light low and mid winds, and a wet ground. A few thunderstorms have also been severe due to wind damage. The NAM was closer to the strong instability of easily over 1k cape. Shear was higher than expected at 30 kts. Late this afternoon and evening the convection will move out with the front. Tonight skies will slowly clear. With calm to light winds valley fog is likely. Rainfall today will help with added low level moisture despite the weak dry advection. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s in CNY to 60s in NEPA. The cold front stalls just to the southeast so convection is again possible in the Catskills, Wyoming Valley and Poconos Saturday afternoon into the evening. Late Saturday night showers come in from the west ahead of the next cold front. Highs Saturday in the 80s. Lows in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 300 PM Forecast... A frontal boundary moving through the region during Sunday afternoon will bring scattered thunderstorms and heavy rain to the region. An upper level trough moving into the region from the Great Lakes will tilt negatively late Sunday morning. This will shift the flow from SW to S and advect in high PWATs to the region. Morning values from 1.25 to 1.5 will increase to 1.75 to 2in during the afternoon hours. A mid-level shortwave combined with a surface low will move into the region, generating thunderstorms that will produce heavy rain across the area. Guidance has pushed the heaviest rain east of our area, with the Catskills now seeing the highest amounts, with 2-3 inches expected thanks to an orographic enhancement from southerly flow. The severe threat for the day will be dependent on if we can get some clearing during the morning hours ahead of the approaching cold front. Guidance is unsure if this will occur, with several models showing widely different values for CAPE. 0-6km shear values range from 30-45kts during the afternoon, allowing for storms to become organized and generate long lived heavy rain showers. Flash flooding will be possible across areas that see prolonged heavy rain, multiple rounds of heavy rain or areas that are flood prone. Later Sunday afternoon into the evening currently looks to be the prime timeframe for heavy rain and flash flooding chances. All of these factors together have allowed the WPC to place our region in a slight risk for excessive rainfall and SPC to place NEPA in a marginal risk for severe storms. Flash flooding is currently expected to be the main threat for Sunday, but given the uncertainty with instability, severe storm chances will have to be monitored as the event approaches. The front is currently progged to stall out east of our CWA as the mid-level shortwave lifts north but the upper level trough is still slightly negatively tilted over the area. This will allow for some lingering showers to remain east of I-81 through Sunday night into Monday morning. Another shortwave pushing through from the south Monday afternoon will bring a chance for rain showers and thunderstorms to the region. Since we will be behind the front, PWATs will be significantly less, only between 1-1.25in. This will keep showers that do form during the afternoon light and scattered. High pressure will build into the region Monday night as the upper level trough exits to the NE, bringing dry conditions. Temps during this period will be warm and muggy. Sunday will see highs in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Highs here could be warmer if we can see some clearing during the morning hours. Sunday night will be muggy with lows in the low to mid 60s. Tuesday will be muggy once again with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Monday night will be a little cooler with temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 330 PM Forecast... High pressure will control the weather pattern through mid- week, keeping conditions mostly dry outside of a slight chance for diurnal showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temps will be hot with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s across the area. Active weather returns to the area Thursday and Friday as another system moves into the region from the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 145 pm update... A cold front is pushing across the area now with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Included TEMPO groups for thunder at most sites. Visibility could fall to IFR due to heavy rain. Ceilings could fall to MVFR. Threat from restrictions ending from northwest to southeast from 21z to 23z. Potential for fog overnight at all sites due to the rain now followed by clearing skies and calm winds tonight. Best chance of valley fog late tonight at ELM falling at times to IFR. ITH could also have MVFR fog. Winds are light throughout. Generally northwest at 5 kts this afternoon. Light and variable to calm tonight. West wind at 5 kts Friday. Outlook... Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening...Mainly VFR. Rain showers and scattered thunderstorms possible AVP. east. Saturday overnight through Sunday night...System brings a renewed higher chance for thunderstorms; some with torrential downpours. Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR expected, but still a chance for mainly afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPH/TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...JTC AVIATION...TAC