660 FXUS65 KABQ 302330 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 530 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 325 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Scattered thunderstorms are expected across eastern New Mexico through this evening. A few of these storms may become strong to severe with localized heavy rainfall, large hail, damaging winds, and frequent lightning possible into the evening hours mainly across eastern New Mexico. Increased moisture will continue to bring daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms along and east of the central mountain chain. The subsequent chance of rain day after day could result in burn scar flash flooding. The Albuquerque and Santa Fe metro areas may also experience canyon winds tonight and tomorrow night as gusty outflow winds push in from the east. Western New Mexico will remain hot and dry through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 325 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 An upper level trough continues to move over the southern and central Rockies, making its way into the Great Plains late this afternoon. An associated speed max aloft (50 to 70 kt at 300 mb) is also overlaying much of NM, and this coupled with healthy 50’s and 60’s dewpoints and consequently elevated CAPE in eastern NM is leading to convective initiation. Sufficient directional turning with height and speed shear will keep a threat of strong to severe storms and supercells going through early evening when the majority of convection is expected to roll eastward and into west TX. High resolution models/ensembles and CAMs are hinting that a second round of storms will impact eastern Colfax, Union and potentially parts of Quay counties later tonight as a convectively-aided cold pool drops into the area from CO. We have tried to capture this in tonight’s POPs, and the other concern will be low stratus clouds and/or mist and fog that develop as the cooler, moist air spills west toward the Rio Grande valley early Saturday morning. Eastern slopes of the central mountain chain would be the prime real estate for stratus development, but a few eastern plains counties (particularly along/near the caprock) may be saturated enough at low levels to join in. Saturday’s stratus may be slow, to erode away in the eastern zones, especially according to the NAM, but should fade into the late morning and early afternoon hours, setting the stage for diurnal destabilization. Whatever moisture spills into the Rio Grande should mix eastward into the early afternoon with the highest dewpoints (low 60’s) pooling in east central NM by Saturday afternoon where highest CAPE values will be focused. Still, isolated to scattered storms should initiate over the Sangre de Cristos, and Sacramentos with ease and also possibly over the Sandia/Manzanos if easterly upslope can sustain itself long enough in the early afternoon hours. Thereafter, the focus will trend toward the east central plains, and while there will be an absence of a trough aloft, sufficient directional shear should keep at least a marginal threat for strong to severe convection Saturday afternoon and evening with an isolated cell or two potentially surviving into early Sunday morning. High temperatures will be near to slightly below average Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 325 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the medium range and extended forecast as the low level moisture continues to ebb and flow from eastern NM across the central mountain chain. A weak shortwave disturbance flowing down from the northwest on Sunday could lead to a few strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Potentially damaging storm gusts, large hail, and localized heavy rainfall could all be possible with any stronger storms across eastern and northeastern NM. Burn scar flooding will also be a daily risk. An upper high developing over northern Mexico, southern Arizona, and southwest New Mexico early next week will keep western areas mainly dry. A few virga showers could exist as far west as the Continental Divide if the low level moisture from the east manages to be carried that far by outflows from the east. These convectively-aided easterly winds could once again produce gusty canyon winds in the Albuquerque and Santa Fe metro areas during the late evening hours on Sunday. The work week will see more of the same in terms of showers and thunderstorms each day, particularly along and east of the central mountain chain with a possibility of some storms developing around the Rio Grande Valley. Northwest winds on Monday turn more zonal late Tuesday into Wednesday as the region of high pressure becomes more elongated into a ridge axis south of NM. A jet max reaching the northeastern part of the state on Thursday with another shortwave could spread into the rest of eastern New Mexico on Friday, which could result in stronger winds and fuel additional storm development through the end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 408 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Thunderstorms are forecast to remain north and east of KLVS this evening but may impact KTCC through 01Z, although probabilities are low. Otherwise, an outflow boundary is forecast to move west overnight and create a gusty east canyon wind at KABQ. Areas of low stratus are forecast to develop behind the outflow boundary across eastern NM overnight and will likely impact KLVS and possibly KROW and KTCC with MVFR cigs. Brief IFR conditions are possible early Saturday morning at KLVS, but not included in the TAF due to lower forecast confidence. Another round of convection is likely Saturday afternoon but should be limited to areas along and immediately east of the central mountain chain, possibly impacting KLVS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Despite the calendar flipping to July tomorrow, the weather pattern appears to be locked in a holding pattern closer to that of June. Low level moisture and higher humidity values will remain entrenched over the eastern half of New Mexico with nightly surges westward that will commonly mix back eastward during the daytime hours. Look for good to excellent humidity recoveries at night in these eastern zones while western areas observe poor to only occasionally fair recoveries along with dreadfully low afternoon humidity readings. This moisture placement and trend will keep wetting showers and thunderstorms focused near and east of the central mountain chain through the next few days with any storms that do develop between the Continental Divide and the Rio Grande being much more high-based and less efficient at producing appreciable rainfall. Prevailing winds will tend to be moderately breezy (10-20 mph) in the afternoons, but could start to increase slightly in western zones by the middle of next week. Likely the bigger wind concerns will stem from thunderstorm outflows, some of which may occasionally spill westward and accelerate through central gaps and canyons. Gusty east canyon winds appear likely tonight and again Saturday night in the typical vulnerable central NM locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 52 92 56 95 / 10 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 41 86 46 89 / 10 10 10 10 Cuba............................ 50 85 52 89 / 10 10 5 10 Gallup.......................... 46 89 49 92 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 46 85 50 88 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 46 89 50 91 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 48 87 52 90 / 0 0 0 10 Magdalena....................... 56 88 59 88 / 0 10 0 30 Datil........................... 50 86 54 87 / 0 0 0 20 Reserve......................... 45 92 49 95 / 0 0 0 5 Glenwood........................ 59 96 61 100 / 0 0 0 10 Chama........................... 42 79 45 82 / 10 20 10 20 Los Alamos...................... 56 82 59 84 / 10 20 10 30 Pecos........................... 52 81 55 85 / 20 30 20 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 42 79 46 82 / 20 30 20 50 Red River....................... 39 72 42 76 / 30 30 20 60 Angel Fire...................... 35 74 39 75 / 20 40 20 50 Taos............................ 45 84 48 86 / 10 20 10 40 Mora............................ 46 76 48 80 / 20 40 20 60 Espanola........................ 52 90 56 92 / 10 10 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 54 85 58 87 / 10 20 10 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 52 88 56 90 / 10 20 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 60 90 63 95 / 0 10 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 62 91 65 95 / 0 10 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 56 93 60 97 / 0 10 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 60 91 63 95 / 0 10 5 10 Belen........................... 56 94 60 97 / 0 10 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 59 93 62 97 / 0 10 5 10 Bosque Farms.................... 54 93 58 97 / 0 10 5 10 Corrales........................ 59 92 62 97 / 0 10 5 10 Los Lunas....................... 56 94 60 97 / 0 10 5 10 Placitas........................ 59 89 62 93 / 5 10 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 60 92 62 96 / 0 10 5 10 Socorro......................... 62 96 64 98 / 0 10 5 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 84 57 86 / 5 20 10 20 Tijeras......................... 55 86 58 89 / 0 20 10 20 Edgewood........................ 51 86 54 89 / 5 20 10 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 47 87 51 89 / 5 20 10 30 Clines Corners.................. 51 82 53 84 / 10 20 20 30 Mountainair..................... 52 87 55 89 / 0 10 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 53 88 55 88 / 0 20 10 30 Carrizozo....................... 60 92 61 92 / 5 20 20 30 Ruidoso......................... 53 83 53 82 / 10 20 20 50 Capulin......................... 49 75 52 78 / 70 40 10 60 Raton........................... 50 80 53 82 / 50 40 10 50 Springer........................ 52 82 54 85 / 40 40 20 50 Las Vegas....................... 51 79 53 82 / 20 40 20 50 Clayton......................... 57 81 59 84 / 70 20 10 30 Roy............................. 54 79 57 82 / 40 40 20 50 Conchas......................... 61 87 62 92 / 30 30 20 40 Santa Rosa...................... 59 85 61 89 / 20 20 20 30 Tucumcari....................... 60 86 62 89 / 30 20 20 20 Clovis.......................... 62 85 63 90 / 30 30 30 20 Portales........................ 62 87 63 92 / 30 30 30 10 Fort Sumner..................... 61 88 63 92 / 20 20 30 20 Roswell......................... 69 95 68 97 / 20 20 20 30 Picacho......................... 58 89 61 90 / 10 30 20 50 Elk............................. 55 87 56 88 / 10 30 20 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...11