470 FXUS64 KOUN 302107 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 407 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 406 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 In addition to the main upper trough centered over the central Rockies, a shortwave is advancing from the southwest as indicated by 22 meter height falls at Midland on the 12Z 500mb analysis. Dynamic lift from this wave has already aided in the development of a line of thunderstorms along a broad baroclinic zone over the Texas panhandle. Latest (20Z) surface observations suggest a weak low was located near Clark/Comanche Counties in southern Kansas with quasi-stationary frontal boundaries extending to Great Bend to Salina to St. Joseph, and to Beaver and Guymon. If the current line of storms reach our area, it should be within the next next 2 to 4 hours. There is a chance of a few scattered storms developing ahead of this line, and over western Oklahoma over the next few hours - though this is uncertain. Overall, the area we are watching for development is from western Oklahoma and into western north Texas. The main hazards posed by this afternoon and evening storms are strong wind gusts and some small hail. Though guidance differs on the evolution/nature of this frontal boundary, there is some indication that the convectively-induced outflow could assist a propogation of the boundary southeastward towards central Oklahoma by Saturday morning where it is forecast to wash out/weaken. There is a low chance that an isolated strong thunderstorm may develop along the I-35 corridor tomorrow morning as the strongest lift moves through. Tomorrow will be cooler than recent days and there is a marginal risk of severe storms near/along this boundary with a threat of damaging winds. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 406 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 The upper trough exits the southern plains early Sunday morning as a broad ridge expands eastward across the southwestern CONUS. As a result, mid- to upper-level flow shifts to the northwest. Several shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow bring low precipitation chances each day. Temperatures are forecast to trend upward from Sunday into Wednesday with a potentially strong cold front moving into the area the middle to end of next week. Greatest rain chances for the long term are with this frontal system Wednesday night into Thursday. Thompson && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 VFR conditions, with breezy south/southwest winds and increasing high cloud cover, are expected at all terminals through 23-00 UTC/6-7 PM CDT. Scattered convection is expected to slide from the High Plains towards portions of western Oklahoma/western-north Texas towards 00 UTC/7 PM CDT this evening. While a gradual weakening trend is expected, an associated period of MVFR conditions are most likely at WWR and CSM this evening. Otherwise, a weak cold front will advance southeastward through the area very late tonight through early Saturday morning. Winds will turn out of the northwest as this occurs. While not included at this forecast update, low-end LLWS concern may develop across western terminals associated with frontal passage. Additional widely scattered showers/storms are expected to develop from southwest through north-central Oklahoma on Saturday morning. For now, have opted to include PROB30 groups, as individual guidance members differ on timing and location of greatest coverage. Safe travels! Ungar && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 72 87 69 91 / 50 60 30 20 Hobart OK 69 87 68 93 / 60 60 30 10 Wichita Falls TX 75 93 71 96 / 20 50 30 20 Gage OK 64 87 63 91 / 80 30 10 0 Ponca City OK 70 88 66 89 / 50 60 30 10 Durant OK 79 94 74 95 / 0 20 20 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...34