893 FXUS62 KMFL 301909 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 309 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 High pressure over the Gulf coast is sliding eastward towards the Florida peninsula this morning. This has led to a veering of the steering flow to the east northeast. A few showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop early this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland. This activity is expected to become more numerous over the next few hours across the eastern and western coasts and will begin to push inland towards the Everglades. With the light northeasterly steering flow in place, storms will once again be slow moving. This could create the potential once again for localized flooding especially over the east coast metro areas where multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible as storms move through the region. A couple stronger cells are possible with primary threats being gusty winds and frequent lighting. High temperatures today will rise into lower to mid 90s across most areas. Heat index values will rise even higher than that as they will range between 102 and 107 across most of the area. On Saturday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely once again. The weak easterly-southeasterly regime will stick around leading to showers and storms firing along the sea breeze in the early afternoons and push inland towards the interior and western areas by the evening hours. High temperatures will range from the low 90s near the east coast to the mid 90s across interior and western areas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 The synoptic pattern for the upcoming week is dominated by the meteorological parameters of persistent mid-level ridging positioned over the northern Gulf Coast, accompanied by troughing over the Northeast US and western Atlantic waters. As we move into the weekend, the ridge is expected to weaken and become more zonal as it gradually shifts east, potentially merging with a building ridge over the Atlantic by the end of the period. Initially, the low-level flow will be westerly-northwesterly due to the influence of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the flow will likely veer to southerly-southeasterly by the weekend as the Bermuda high extends its influence westward. With the shifting synoptic pattern, the 500mb flow will transition to an easterly direction throughout the weekend. This easterly flow will facilitate the inland propagation of the Atlantic sea breeze, resulting in a slower progression of the Gulf sea breeze. Consequently, we can expect convection to favor the Atlantic waters and the east coast metro area during the morning hours, gradually moving inland and toward the Gulf coast during the afternoon to early evening hours before eventually dissipating over the Gulf of Mexico. Inland locations of the CWA generally favor the majority of the instability (DCAPE) allowing for the potential of stronger activity with embedded gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Furthermore, the repeated rounds of showers and storms each afternoon pose a potential hydrologic risk, increasing the likelihood of localized flooding in SW FL and the interior. As we enter early next week and Independence Day, a resurgence of deeper moisture will filter in across the region with the return of southwesterly mid- level flow. This directional wind shift will occur as the 500mb ridge advances eastward into the western Atlantic. Consequently, the probability of precipitation will remain higher than the climatological normal across most of the area as modeled PWATs are greater than 2” early next week. We can expect the high temperatures to remain at summery levels, ranging from the low to mid-90s, with heat indices soaring into the 100-110 degree range. However, the increased shower and thunderstorm activity and the cooling impacts of anvil cloud debris will lead to temperature drops in and around convection. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon around all terminals and short-fuse amendments may be necessary for cells that influence terminals through the day. L/V flow overnight will become southeasterly again with the sea breeze during the early afternoon. Gulf breeze should lead to southwest flow at APF. More showers and thunderstorms expected tomorrow although not high enough confidence to go beyond VCTS. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 A gentle to moderate southeasterly wind flow will develop over the local waters today and it will remain in place through the rest of the weekend and into the early and middle portion of next week. Seas will generally remain at 2 feet or less across the Atlantic and Gulf waters during this time frame. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Winds and seas could be locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 90 79 91 / 40 70 30 70 West Kendall 76 91 76 92 / 40 80 30 70 Opa-Locka 77 90 77 92 / 40 70 30 70 Homestead 76 89 77 89 / 50 70 40 70 Fort Lauderdale 77 88 78 89 / 30 60 30 60 N Ft Lauderdale 77 89 78 91 / 30 60 20 60 Pembroke Pines 77 90 77 91 / 30 70 30 70 West Palm Beach 77 89 76 91 / 20 50 20 50 Boca Raton 77 90 77 92 / 30 60 20 60 Naples 76 93 78 94 / 40 60 40 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....Pine AVIATION...Rizzuto