123 FXUS63 KICT 301741 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1241 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 A weak upper level shortwave trough currently located across the Rocky Mountains will eject into the Central Plains today leading to scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening out ahead of a cold front. Strong to severe storms will be possible with these storms with damaging winds of 60 mph and quarter sized hail the primary threats. Heavy rainfall could also lead to localized flooding. Upper flow between 200mb and 300mb will be above average for this time of the year with a 60 to 90kt jet streak. This should allow for severe storms across the High Plains during the afternoon and evening where steep lapse rates and upper 60 dewpoints are expected. Further east across central and south-central Kansas lapse rates don't look nearly as good and surface dewpoints look to only be in the low to mid 60s. 500mb winds also look to be below 30kt and directional shear doesn't appear to be too impressive so overall there appears to be a lid on severe storm potential for our region. Effective deep layer shear still looks to be in the 40 to 50kt range however, so a few strong to severe storms are expected, especially across central Kansas. High PWAT values in the 90 to 95th percentile will be in place out ahead and just behind the cold front late this evening and tonight across central and south-central Kansas and on Saturday morning across eastern and southeast Kansas. 700 and 850mb moisture transport doesn't appear to focus on our area, however with high PWAT values along with a high k-index and Corfidi Upshear values ranging between 5kt and 20kt, there does seem to be some potential for storms to train, which could lead to flooding across central Kansas. Stay tuned for future updates. Showers and storms will likely be exiting our region by late Saturday night. Cooler temperatures are expected during the day Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Sunday looks to be dry with seasonal temperatures in the low 90s expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 The models seem to be in a general agreement in the breakdown of the ridge sometime in the middle of the week with the potential for multiple shortwaves to move across the Central Plains. This would bring chances for rain to the region and cooler weather. Global ensembles still differ in just how much the ridge breaks down with the GEFS showing the biggest decrease in upper heights across our region while the GEPS and EPS show a slightly lower change. How much cooler it gets will be determined by how much lower upper heights are across our area. The general direction still favors a decrease overall so will continue to show cooler weather in the extended range. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 VFR conditions can be expected for the first eight to ten hours of the TAF period. A line of thunderstorms is expected to be develop during the evening and overnight which will bring MVFR and IFR conditions to all terminals except KCNU. Most of this activity looks to occur during a three to five hour period between 03Z and 07Z. An isolated severe storm is possible but generally except sub-severe winds at this. This thunderstorm activity is expected to end for all terminals by 10Z-12Z. At that time, VFR conditions will return. Metzger && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 99 70 88 66 / 20 50 40 20 Hutchinson 99 67 86 63 / 20 60 40 20 Newton 99 70 86 64 / 20 50 50 20 ElDorado 98 70 87 64 / 20 40 50 30 Winfield-KWLD 99 71 88 65 / 20 40 40 30 Russell 93 64 83 61 / 30 70 40 10 Great Bend 94 65 83 61 / 30 70 30 10 Salina 99 68 85 63 / 20 70 60 20 McPherson 98 67 85 62 / 20 60 50 20 Coffeyville 101 75 92 67 / 0 30 40 50 Chanute 101 75 90 67 / 10 30 60 50 Iola 100 74 89 66 / 10 30 60 50 Parsons-KPPF 101 75 92 67 / 10 30 40 50 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ071-072-095-096- 099-100. && $$ SHORT TERM...CRW LONG TERM...CRW AVIATION...Metzger