469 
FXUS64 KBRO 301700 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1200 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Mid-level ridging will remain parked over Louisiana through the 
period. This will allow for Gulf moisture to increase across Deep 
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Above normal temperatures and 
borderline Heat Advisory conditions will continue today and 
Saturday. Highs this afternoon and Saturday afternoon will range 
from the mid to upper 80s at the beaches, 90s near the coast, and 
between 100 to 105 degrees inland. Some drier air aloft mixing aloft 
should allow for slightly lower dewpoints this afternoon with heat 
indices "feels like temperatures" ranging between 104 to 110 
degrees. However, can't rule out that heat index values may briefly 
exceed 110 degrees for a couple hours this afternoon in a few 
places. Warm and humid tonight with overnight lows in the upper 70s 
to the lower 80s. An isolated light shower may develop along the 
coast from time to time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

This portion of the total forecast continues to look massively
promising. 500 mb high pressure will be in the death throes on
Sunday, but still producing well above normal daytime high
temperatures and dry weather on that day. Monday through Thursday,
however, will be a completely different story. Mid-level
troughiness will develop and persist over the Lone Star State,
leading to a steadily increasing chance of rain. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms on Monday will become isolated to scattered on
Tuesday, and scattered Wednesday and Thursday. The increasing rain
chances and associated more significant cloud cover will lead to a
gradual decrease in daytime high temperatures and to more near
normal values for this time of year. 

Beyond the end of the long term forecast period, some model
guidance suggests that the chance of rain will persist into the
second week of July, as 500 mb low pressure and deep tropical
moisture (precipitable water values at or exceeding 2 inches) 
moves up the east coast of Mexico and into the BRO CWFA. If this 
scenario occurs, it will be welcome relief and a stark contrast to
multiple consecutive days of unbearably hot temperatures, dry 
weather, and nearly cloudless skies. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

VFR conditions with breezy/gusty south southeast winds. Low 
cumulus cloud streets plus scattered high clouds. Weak radar 
returns from isolated Gulf streamers. Broad mid-level ridging 
stretches across the Gulf coast with surface high pressure 
supporting onshore flow. Little change expected the next 24 hours.
Winds will diminish late this evening and will strengthen to 
moderate/gusty Saturday morning/afternoon. Low clouds will 
return, with high cloud spillover from upstream. Isolated coastal
showers. VFR conditions will dominate.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds around 16 knots gusting to 
around 19 knots with seas slightly over 3.3 feet with a period of 
5 seconds at 300 CDT/800 UTC. Moderate to occasionally fresh 
southeast winds and moderate seas. Operators of small craft should
exercise caution on the Laguna Madre and Nearshore Gulf waters 
today. Isolated coastal showers.

(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Marine conditions may become adverse enough such that Small Craft
Exercise Caution may be needed along the Lower Texas Coast Tuesday
night through Wednesday night. Otherwise, generally moderate winds
and seas will occur for the remainder of the period with a modest
pressure gradient in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  95  79  95 /   0   0   0  10 
HARLINGEN               78  98  76  97 /   0   0   0  10 
MCALLEN                 80 100  79 101 /   0   0   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY         80 103  78 103 /   0   0   0  10 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  88  80  89 /   0   0   0  10 
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  94  78  94 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....59-GB
AVIATION...54-BHM