543 FXUS64 KSHV 301519 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1019 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1019 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 No update is needed to the overnight forecast package at this time. /44/ && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 As the final day of June dawns over the ArkLaTex, the closed upper level high and associated ridging responsible for this week's heat wave will begin to depart to the east, but not before giving us another afternoon of above average to near record setting heat. The aforementioned high will begin today positioned over the ArkLaMiss, and based on GFS projections, will not move much at all through the course of the day, save for broadening and elongating somewhat along a southwest to northeast oriented axis draped across Louisiana. Overnight and into the day Saturday, the elongated ridge will flatten out into a broad area of high pressure along the northern Gulf Coast, allowing for an upper level trough over the northern Plains to begin pushing south and east. While the broad area of subsidence under the pronounced ridging should inhibit convective development on a near areawide basis, a few pop up showers and storms, while unlikely, cannot be entirely ruled out across our easternmost zones of north central Louisiana, fed by ample moisture on southerly surface winds becoming southwesterly through the day. An otherwise uneventful forecast will be punctuated only by a westward Cu field expansion. While conditions remain mostly quiet, the heat will still pose a health concern at least once more this week for the ArkLaTex. Taking into account a warm biased NBM solution, have elected to massage high temperatures Friday down by 1-2 degrees, capping area sites in the upper 90s. A few sites reaching the century mark is not out of the question, but models have struggled to accurately resolve our persistent humid airmass through the week. Save for sufficient mixing out during the morning tomorrow, which might allow for a dramatic spike in temperatures, a near repeat performance looks in store for area thermometers. Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid 70s to near 80 degrees, followed by another round of mid to upper 90s Saturday afternoon, accompanied by another day of quiet, sunny weather marked only by increasing clouds north and west. If, as appears likely, high dew points fail to mix out tomorrow, the combination of heat and humidity will again result in heat indices of between 105 and 113 degrees across the area during the afternoon. Thus have elected to issue a new Excessive Heat Warning areawide, which will be in effect from 10:00 AM through 8:00 PM Friday. The existing Heat Advisory will remain in effect through the overnight hours until expiring at 7:00 AM Saturday, with reissuance possible if deemed merited. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Starting 00z Sunday...Upper-air pattern as we start the long-term forecast features a trough extending from the Great Lakes southwest to the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. This will help to somewhat flatten the ridge that has brought us such oppressive heat during the past week. The good news is, this will bring some temporary relief to our temperatures as we head into the next week. The bad news is, we are still in the dog days of summer. At the surface, a low will be situated over east central Kansas and west central Missouri with a cold front extending through central Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. There will be some progression of this cold front through the day Sunday before stalling out across our northern zones. This will bring a low-end chance for thunderstorms across our northern zones on Sunday, generally along and north of I-30. Moving into next week, the trough will remain in place with some slight movement to the east, but most importantly, will keep the high pressure out of our region. Moving into the July 4th holiday and beyond, look for rain chances to gradually increase as we will be trapped between two ridges to our west and east. As a result, we should see an increase in diurnal convection through the middle and even end of next week. This should also help with the heat as we get to the middle and end of next week. /33/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 For the 30/12Z TAFs, VFR conditions look to prevail for the duration of this TAF period. Quiet weather continues, with the only noteworthy feature being the reintroduction of slightly lower cloud decks with a westward spreading CU field tomorrow with cigs in the neighborhood of 5000 ft at FEW to SCT coverage. Winds will maintain an overall southerly trend, becoming southwesterly at sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts during the afternoon hours. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 99 80 99 79 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 99 79 99 77 / 10 10 0 10 DEQ 97 75 95 74 / 0 0 0 10 TXK 97 79 96 77 / 0 0 0 10 ELD 96 77 97 76 / 10 0 0 10 TYR 97 78 98 79 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 99 78 97 78 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 99 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050- 051-059>061-070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096- 097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...44