907 
FXUS63 KABR 301455 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
955 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Made a few modifications to PoPs for today/tonight, per the latest
hi-res short-term guidance suggesting rain chances may be
extending themselves a bit further north and east over the CWA by
late this afternoon through late this evening, while upper level 
low pressure energy is over South Dakota/Nebraska, with what can
only be loosely defined as a "deformation zone" over the northern
half of forecast zones today/tonight. Updates are out. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

As of 3 AM CDT there are some storms in west river counties. These
sub-severe storms are expected to continue through the morning. 
Temperatures across the region this morning are in the 60s.

Almost the entire CWA is outlooked for general thunder today but the 
best chances for storms look to be around and west of the Missouri 
River. This area has the best MUCAPE, around 1000 - 1500 J/kg. The 
bulk shear and lapse rates aren't particularly favorable for storm 
formation (bulk shear between 5 and 15 kts, lapse rates between 5 
and 6 C/km) but some pulse storms could form in the afternoon. No 
severe weather is expected. Chances of showers and storms continues 
to move south during the evening and early overnight hours. Saturday 
will be dry. 

Smoke doesn't look to be much of an issue going into the weekend. 
Skies could be a little bit hazy with some elevated smoke but even 
that will be limited. Temperatures will be right around normal 
today, and a little warmer tomorrow. Winds will be calm with a few 
gusts up to 15 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

The period starts off with a s/w ridge building across the region, 
as a trof over southwest Canada starts digging toward the Northern 
Rockies. The ridging aloft should serve to keeps things mostly dry 
until the Tue-Wed time frame. At that time a sfc boundary will drop 
south into the region. Energy aloft will interact with this boundary 
to produce showers/storms mid-week. Highest probs for widespread 
pcpn looks to be in the Tue night/Wed period. The latter part of the 
week brings in cooler and drier air as a sfc high drops into the 
Dakotas. As for severe weather chances, the combination of 
increasing deep layer bulk shear and a very unstable airmass 
juxtapose late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Otherwise, chances look 
relatively low for the other periods in the long term. Temperatures 
are expected to be hot for Sunday through Tuesday ahead of the 
frontal boundary, with the models progging H850 temps pushing above 
+20C in the afternoon/early evening. A cool down then ensues for the 
mid to latter part of the week behind the front as it moves south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR skies/vsbys are expected through today along with isolated
afternoon showers/storms.  

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK