377 FXUS61 KILN 301358 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 958 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the Independence Day weekend as disturbances interact with a humid and unstable airmass. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Skies have become mostly sunny, and air quality has improved in a clear slot following the last MCS. We may be free from thunderstorms today since there is a cap in place to squelch deep convection. High temperatures will be quite warm, with mid to late afternoon readings reaching the mid and upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... There is broad agreement, as much as can be expected in a generally weakly forced unstable environment, that a disturbance will push into the area during the latter part of the night and move through Saturday morning. Enough uncertainty with this to keep PoPs in the chance category. Most likely this would be elevated. Beyond this details become even more uncertain although there is signal that another disturbance may be approaching late Saturday which brings another increase in PoPs. Plenty of available instability as well as shear that any activity later Saturday would have severe weather potential. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Active pattern in the long term especially to start out the long term Saturday night. Several models are indicating a MCS moving through Saturday night. Due to this have high precipitation chances in the forecast during this time. Added confidence to this is that this is one time period where there has been some consistency with bringing a system through. Since several rounds of thunderstorms are moving through during this pattern, there is some inherent uncertainty as one round influences the next, however probability is on the higher side for thunderstorms to move through Saturday night. Of particular concern is the damaging wind threat with this system, although isolated tornadoes and hail cannot be ruled out. Those with outside interests especially Saturday late evening into Saturday night should stay weather aware to the these potential hazards. SPC also has the region in a slight risk for this time period. Another system moving through Sunday into Monday will bring more thunderstorms to the region and an additional severe threat. After this system there will be a decrease in activity Monday night into Tuesday morning. Showers that develop Tuesday afternoon will be more scattered in nature. Mid to late week multiple additional rounds of convection are expected. Temperatures each day will be highly dependent on convective activity, however in general most locations will see high temperatures in the 80s. Most low temperatures will be in the 60s. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Clouds across the region are still forecast to lower to MVFR ceilings with the exception of KCVG/KLUK. It appears that clouds will remain above 3kft there although there are some visibility restrictions in mist. Clouds will scatter through the day, generally from west to east. Expect only some high clouds thereafter until late in the period. There is the potential for some showers and thunderstorms to move in at that point, but there is enough uncertainty that far out to not include in the TAFs at this point. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday through Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...