986 FXUS61 KBGM 301034 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 634 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread haze and smoke will continue to affect the area today, with poor air quality expected. Warm today with highs in the mid to upper 80s and pushing 90 in some valleys. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible late afternoon across the western Finger Lakes, but most of the day will be dry. Shower and thunderstorm chances will ramp up through the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 305 AM Forecast... A ridge of high pressure east of the region continues to be the main weather feature over the region. The light winds and suppression from the high has allowed haze and smoke to remain at the surface over the region, and this is expected to continue into the afternoon hours. An Air Quality Alert has been issued for the CWA until 12am Saturday. The ridge will slowly move eastward as a trough moves in from the west. Southerly flow will move across the area tonight and advect in a much warmer airmass for Friday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with a few valleys possibly hitting 90. High temps were dropped a few degrees based on the expected smoke and haze that will block some of the sun's rays, but it will still be a warm one. Model guidance is trying to bring some rain showers and thunderstorms into the western and northern portion of the CWA as a weak shortwave moves into the region from the Great Lakes. Modeled soundings show a lot of dry air at the surface that rain showers will have to overcome. Because of this, chance PoPs were included across the western Finger Lakes during the late afternoon, extending into the Tug Hill by the evening. Chance to slight chance PoPs remain across the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Overnight lows will be warm thanks to southerly flow, with 60s expected across the region. Saturday morning will continue to see a chance for rain showers and isolated thunder. Continued moisture advection will put PWATs of 1.5-1.8in across the area by the afternoon. A stronger shortwave will push into the area from the Ohio Valley, bringing a better chance for rain showers and thunderstorms across the area, especially from the Finger Lakes to the Tug Hill. CAPE and shear values are not incredibly impressive at this time and the SPC has the region in a Marginal outlook so the severe threat at this time is low, but not 0. Long, skinny CAPE combined with the high PWATs will allow for heavy rain to occur where convection does pop off. Increased cloud cover and expected afternoon rain showers will keep temps on Saturday in the low to mid 80s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A frontal boundary will continue to slowly sag southward into the region Saturday night and looks to be present through Monday. Modeling and various ensembles are keying on several mid-level disturbances coming through the area. Coupled with plenty of moisture and lift, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated Saturday night through Monday. While shear and instability look on the lower end for widespread strong or severe storms, modeled PW values get close to 2 inches. Coupled with potential training storm motions from thunderstorms, locally heavy rainfall is a concern throughout this period. Did lower highs slightly Sunday and Monday from guidance given the clouds and rain with most locations just getting to around 80. Lows look muggy as well in the mid and upper 60's. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Little change to the holiday forecast from yesterday. High pressure should start to slowly build into the region for Tuesday (July 4th) through Thursday. Still a low end chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday as some ensemble members are a bit slower with the overall pattern. Temperatures start a warming trend, with highs well in the 80's on Wednesday and pushing 90 Thursday. With added humidity heat index values may approach 95 in a few central NY spots Thursday. Continued muggy overnight lows in the mid to upper 60's. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Smoke and fog across the area are causing restricted visibilities at all terminals. RME is seeing the smallest impact at MVFR visby and ELM has the worst at LIFR visby. All other terminals are at IFR. This is expected to last through the morning as modeled soundings show a low level inversion that should trap the smoke at the surface and not let it mix out until later this afternoon when temps and winds increase. IFR conditions are expected at all terminals except RME until the later morning/early afternoon when enough low level mixing should occur to raise visibilities to MVFR across the area. Some rain showers could push into the western portion of the CWA later this afternoon and into the overnight hours so VCSH were included in the TAFs for ELM/ITH/SYR/RME but restrictions are not expected at this time. Outlook... Saturday through Tuesday...Increasing probabilities for showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JTC NEAR TERM...JTC SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...JTC