589 FXUS62 KMHX 300801 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 401 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure offshore and inland troughing persists through early next week bringing hot and muggy weather to kick off July. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 330 AM Fri...Additional patchy fog development expected away from the beaches early this morning as cirrus is beginning to clear out. Any fog that does develop will mainly be shallow and light, and should clear shortly after sunrise. Today will feature weak high pressure shifting offshore with inland troughing. The local pressure gradient remains weak, with an afternoon sea breeze being the dominate surface feature. Of more consequence is the mid level pattern, with increasing mid level WAA through the day limiting instability and increasing lower to mid level clouds through the afternoon, especially inland in closer proximity to a shortwave diving southward down the southern Appalachians. Limited BL moisture and lack of substantial instability will keep mainly dry conditions in place, with little more than a few inland showers expected later in the afternoon as the sea breeze pushes far enough inland to intersect the better mid level moisture. Highs continue to run within a few degrees of normal as no substantial low level airmass change has occurred in the past several days. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM Fri...Lower to mid level WAA and cloud cover continues through much of the night, limiting radiational cooling and the fog threat. Mainly dry conditions expected with the lack of forcing and instability, but a few inland showers could linger into the late evening. Another muggy night, with low temps and dew points both around 70. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 4 AM Friday...The heat builds in over the weekend into next week with periods of widely scattered showers and storms. Saturday...NC remains on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the lower Mississippi River Valley with NW downslope flow and subsidence aloft keeping mainly dry conditions across the area, although isolated diurnally driven convection will be possible, primarily along the sea breeze. Temps will be seasonably warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s along the coast to lower 90s inland. Sunday through Thursday...The upper ridge to the west flattens over the weekend and into early next week with near zonal flow aloft across NC. This will allow occasional impulses to push across the area bringing somewhat better chances for showers and storms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours when instability is maximized. The big story this period will be the building heat and humidity with high temps in the low to mid 90s and dewpoint temps in the mid 70s bringing heat index values around 105 to 110 Sunday through the 4th of July. Just a touch cooler for Wednesday and Thursday with heat index values around 100-105. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 2 AM Fri...Thin cirrus streaming overhead makes the fog forecast for the rest of the night very uncertain. Clearing will lead to the few degrees of cooling needed to develop areas of mainly light, shallow radiation fog, while persistent cirrus will likely limit fog to little to no coverage. Have opted to TEMPO MVFR fog for a few hours around sunrise, but this is a low confidence forecast. Weak winds prevail again today, with only an afternoon cu field and a few isolated showers/storms to contend with. A weak mid level shortwave will bring increasing lower to mid level cloud coverage tonight, which should help to limit the fog threat and keep VFR conditions in the forecast overnight. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 4 AM Friday...Pred VFR expected through the long term as high pressure builds in from the west. Isolated to widely scattered, mainly diurnally driven, showers and storms could bring occasional flight restrictions across rtes, especially as we move into the weekend and early next week. Also, could see patchy late night/early morning fog. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 330 AM Fri... Period of great boating conditions continues as weak high pressure slides offshore and the local gradient remains very weak. Gusty onshore winds develop near the coast as the sea breeze initiates once again this afternoon. Seas drop a bit to only around 2 to 3 ft in mainly medium period trade swell. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 4 AM Friday...Good boating conditions through the long term. SW winds around 10-15 kt on Saturday increase to 10-20 kt on Sunday and Monday as gradients tighten between high pressure offshore and an inland thermal trough. Seas will be around 2-3 ft through early Saturday will build to 3 to 4 ft late Saturday and 3 to 5 ft Sunday into Monday. Gradients relax some as we move into the middle of the week with SW winds around 10-15 kt and seas around 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...SK/CB MARINE...SK/CB