021 FXUS61 KBGM 300743 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 343 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread haze and smoke will continue to affect the area today, with poor air quality expected. Warm today with highs in the mid to upper 80s and pushing 90 in some valleys. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible late afternoon across the western Finger Lakes, but most of the day will be dry. Shower and thunderstorm chances will ramp up through the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 305 AM Forecast... A ridge of high pressure east of the region continues to be the main weather feature over the region. The light winds and suppression from the high has allowed haze and smoke to remain at the surface over the region, and this is expected to continue into the afternoon hours. An Air Quality Alert has been issued for the CWA until 12am Saturday. The ridge will slowly move eastward as a trough moves in from the west. Southerly flow will move across the area tonight and advect in a much warmer airmass for Friday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with a few valleys possibly hitting 90. High temps were dropped a few degrees based on the expected smoke and haze that will block some of the sun's rays, but it will still be a warm one. Model guidance is trying to bring some rain showers and thunderstorms into the western and northern portion of the CWA as a weak shortwave moves into the region from the Great Lakes. Modeled soundings show a lot of dry air at the surface that rain showers will have to overcome. Because of this, chance PoPs were included across the western Finger Lakes during the late afternoon, extending into the Tug Hill by the evening. Chance to slight chance PoPs remain across the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Overnight lows will be warm thanks to southerly flow, with 60s expected across the region. Saturday morning will continue to see a chance for rain showers and isolated thunder. Continued moisture advection will put PWATs of 1.5-1.8in across the area by the afternoon. A stronger shortwave will push into the area from the Ohio Valley, bringing a better chance for rain showers and thunderstorms across the area, especially from the Finger Lakes to the Tug Hill. CAPE and shear values are not incredibly impressive at this time and the SPC has the region in a Marginal outlook so the severe threat at this time is low, but not 0. Increased cloud cover and expected afternoon rain showers will keep temps on Saturday in the low to mid 80s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A frontal boundary will continue to slowly sag southward into the region Saturday night and looks to be present through Monday. Modeling and various ensembles are keying on several mid-level disturbances coming through the area. Coupled with plenty of moisture and lift, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated Saturday night through Monday. While shear and instability look on the lower end for widespread strong or severe storms, modeled PW values get close to 2 inches. Coupled with potential training storm motions from thunderstorms, locally heavy rainfall is a concern throughout this period. Did lower highs slightly Sunday and Monday from guidance given the clouds and rain with most locations just getting to around 80. Lows look muggy as well in the mid and upper 60's. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Little change to the holiday forecast from yesterday. High pressure should start to slowly build into the region for Tuesday (July 4th) through Thursday. Still a low end chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday as some ensemble members are a bit slower with the overall pattern. Temperatures start a warming trend, with highs well in the 80's on Wednesday and pushing 90 Thursday. With added humidity heat index values may approach 95 in a few central NY spots Thursday. Continued muggy overnight lows in the mid to upper 60's. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TAFs tonight and into tomorrow are tricky given the continued smoke overhead that is expected to last into tomorrow afternoon. Currently, terminals are at MVFR/IFR visby and are expected to remain this way through the overnight hours. ELM is holding steady at IFR vis. Cloud cover is expected to diminish in the next hour, which will allow for radiational cooling to drop temps low enough to generate some valley fog and LIFR visibility into the morning hours. Given light winds and the continued presence of smoke, IFR visby is continued into the afternoon hours. BGM/SYR/ITH are bouncing in and out of IFR visby and this is expected to continue through the overnight hours. Uncertainty continues as to if IFR conditions will continue through the morning hours like it did yesterday. Winds are shifting to out of the south but will blow smoke in that has been sitting over the Ohio River Valley. This will have to be monitored to see if the new smoke continues to keep visby down. AVP should remain MVFR into the afternoon due to haze. RME is currently MVFR as smoke has moved back in here, but with recent rains, there will be a chance for some fog to form, dropping visby to IFR this morning. Smoke looks to advect back into the area with the southerly winds so MVFR conditions are expected into the afternoon. Outlook... Friday night...Smoke and haze may improve to MVFR visibilities, improving further towards dawn. Small chance for showers and thunderstorms. Saturday through Tuesday...Increasing probabilities for showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JTC NEAR TERM...JTC SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...JTC