297 
FXUS64 KOUN 300734
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
234 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

With the upper high drifting slowly to the south and east, mid-level 
flow will be more from the southwest today across western and 
central Oklahoma. Although not strong, sufficient mixing is expected 
to lower dewpoints below the excessive values seen over the last 
week. DESI indicates no members have dew points above 63 degrees F. 
by the afternoon over a large part of the western half of Oklahoma. 
It seems reasonable that the NBM has given values there in the lower 
60s, so no heat advisory is planned for today. With the approach of 
an upper short-wave trough from the northwest this evening, 
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in western Oklahoma 
gradually approaching central sections around sunrise

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

A break in the excessive heat arrives Saturday as the upper 
pattern changes. The dominant upper high will evolve further to 
the southeast over the southeastern U.S. A short wave upper 
trough, over Wyoming this morning, will deepen as it phases with 
the synoptic-scale upper low over eastern Ontario. The southern 
extent of this short-wave feature will pass over the northern half
of Oklahoma during the day Saturday. A chance for showers and 
thunderstorms will occur over most of Oklahoma Saturday. A weak 
cold front will also be moving through the state during the day. 
With directional vertical wind shear near and behind the front, 
there is a marginal risk for severe hail/wind much of the day. By 
Sunday, weak northwesterly flow begins to set up over Oklahoma 
while the broad upper ridge remains just south extending from 
southern Arizona to Florida. There will be quite low chances for 
rain until mid-week for any complex that may arrive from the north
or northwest. However, by late Wednesday or Thursday, faster 
westerly flow may move across the central U.S. Rockies and into 
the central plains around the northern edges of the Sonoran upper 
high. This will bring an increased chance for rain with cooler 
temperatures expected Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Diurnal changes in wind direction/speed and increasing high clouds 
are the primary weather changes expected. VFR conditions are
expected through the forecast period. There is some potential of
showers/storms moving into western Oklahoma toward the end of the
period (mainly KWWR and KCSM), but will be more likely after 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  95  74  88  70 /   0  40  50  40 
Hobart OK         97  71  90  68 /  10  50  50  30 
Wichita Falls TX 101  75  95  71 /   0  30  40  30 
Gage OK           94  65  88  63 /  10  60  20  10 
Ponca City OK     98  72  89  66 /   0  60  50  40 
Durant OK         98  79  94  74 /   0   0  10  20 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...26