112 FXUS61 KBGM 300733 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 333 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread haze and smoke will continue to affect the area today, with poor air quality expected. Warm today with highs in the mid to upper 80s and pushing 90 in some valleys. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible late afternoon across the western Finger Lakes, but most of the day will be dry. Shower and thunderstorm chances will ramp up through the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 305 AM Forecast... A ridge of high pressure east of the region continues to be the main weather feature over the region. The light winds and suppression from the high has allowed haze and smoke to remain at the surface over the region, and this is expected to continue into the afternoon hours. An Air Quality Alert has been issued for the CWA until 12am Saturday. The ridge will slowly move eastward as a trough moves in from the west. Southerly flow will move across the area tonight and advect in a much warmer airmass for Friday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with a few valleys possibly hitting 90. High temps were dropped a few degrees based on the expected smoke and haze that will block some of the sun's rays, but it will still be a warm one. Model guidance is trying to bring some rain showers and thunderstorms into the western and northern portion of the CWA as a weak shortwave moves into the region from the Great Lakes. Modeled soundings show a lot of dry air at the surface that rain showers will have to overcome. Because of this, chance PoPs were included across the western Finger Lakes during the late afternoon, extending into the Tug Hill by the evening. Chance to slight chance PoPs remain across the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Overnight lows will be warm thanks to southerly flow, with 60s expected across the region. Saturday morning will continue to see a chance for rain showers and isolated thunder. Continued moisture advection will put PWATs of 1.5-1.8in across the area by the afternoon. A stronger shortwave will push into the area from the Ohio Valley, bringing a better chance for rain showers and thunderstorms across the area, especially from the Finger Lakes to the Tug Hill. CAPE and shear values are not incredibly impressive at this time and the SPC has the region outlooked in General Thunder so the severe threat at this time is low, but not 0. Increased cloud cover and expected afternoon rain showers will keep temps on Saturday in the low to mid 80s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 300 PM Update... High pressure will be moving off to the east on Saturday with an upper level trough digging into the northern Great Lakes. Increasing SW flow as well as increasing PWATs to above 1.5 inches. Overall forecast soundings show weak mid level lapse rates and low CAPE but there does look to be some synoptic lift with a jet max off to our west with diffluent flow over NY and PA. The synoptic lift should help storms develop despite the lower cape and weak lapse rates. With shear on the lower side (only about 10 to 15 knots), organized storms are not expected. With the synoptic lift continuing into Saturday night, precipitation chances were kept at a chance or higher though most of the thunder was removed after midnight. SW flow continues Sunday with PWATs continuing to increase, rising up to near 2 inches. Temperature profiles are fairly saturated with long skinny CAPE. With weak flow, any showers and thunderstorms will be moving slow with high rainfall rates. Localized flash flooding is possible with any storm. Sunday night into Monday, many of the deterministic models are trying to develop a weak surface low from an MCS that develops Friday in the central US. This low is currently forecasted to move into our region Sunday night into Monday. Confidence in the track of the surface low is extremely uncertain especially since the MCS that develops it does not even develop for another 24 hours. If this low does materialize as modeled, there will likely be widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday with a continued flash flood threat. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 300 PM Update... The long term starts off on the 4th of July. As of now, the surface low is headed off to the east and some weak ridging trying to build in. This would help with some capping though given that the PWATs still stay near to above climatology, there will likely be some spotty showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The GFS is the slowest with moving the surface low off to the east and keeps it over us along with higher chances of rain though it is the outlier. The GEFS ensembles have slowed the progress of the low a little but still have it east of us by the afternoon. The 12Z ECMWF did not have too much of a change in the timing of the low. Smoke may be an issue again as flow becomes more northerly on the backside of the low. The rest of the long term, weak ridging tries to build in mid week after the 4th though PWATs stay above an inch to near 1.5 inches so that would still provide some fuel for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as this warm and unsettled pattern continues. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TAFs tonight and into tomorrow are tricky given the continued smoke overhead that is expected to last into tomorrow afternoon. Currently, terminals are at MVFR/IFR visby and are expected to remain this way through the overnight hours. ELM is holding steady at IFR vis. Cloud cover is expected to diminish in the next hour, which will allow for radiational cooling to drop temps low enough to generate some valley fog and LIFR visibility into the morning hours. Given light winds and the continued presence of smoke, IFR visby is continued into the afternoon hours. BGM/SYR/ITH are bouncing in and out of IFR visby and this is expected to continue through the overnight hours. Uncertainty continues as to if IFR conditions will continue through the morning hours like it did yesterday. Winds are shifting to out of the south but will blow smoke in that has been sitting over the Ohio River Valley. This will have to be monitored to see if the new smoke continues to keep visby down. AVP should remain MVFR into the afternoon due to haze. RME is currently MVFR as smoke has moved back in here, but with recent rains, there will be a chance for some fog to form, dropping visby to IFR this morning. Smoke looks to advect back into the area with the southerly winds so MVFR conditions are expected into the afternoon. Outlook... Friday night...Smoke and haze may improve to MVFR visibilities, improving further towards dawn. Small chance for showers and thunderstorms. Saturday through Tuesday...Increasing probabilities for showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JTC NEAR TERM...JTC SHORT TERM...AJG LONG TERM...AJG/MWG AVIATION...JTC