845 FXUS63 KMQT 300703 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 303 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Today) Issued at 303 AM EDT FRI JUN 30 2023 As a weak shortwave rotating around a parent low over northern Ontario lifts from Lake Superior to the northeast today, expect isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to end over the central early this morning and continue today over the far east. With the new convection in the central firing up in air that has already been worked over, I don't think we will see any severe wx early this morning, even though the HREF has MUCAPEs around 1000 J/kg and deterministic guidance keeps 0-6 km bulk shear between 30 and 40 kts. Over the central, east, and Keweenaw early this morning, some patches to areas of fog could be seen via upslope flow from the Great Lakes. However, given that webcams and model guidance are showing visibilities above 1/4 SM, decided to not hoist a Dense Fog Advisory for these areas. Otherwise, in the interior west, satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies early this morning. As the weak cold front of the shortwave moves into the east after dawn this morning, expect the cloud cover (and rain chances) to be limited to this spot save for the Keweenaw, which could still see some upslope fog remain from western Lake Superior until early this afternoon. As a weak sfc high pressure builds across Lake Superior later today, expect mostly sunny skies to develop across Upper MI. This should allow temps to get into the 80s across the interior areas and the 70s along the Great Lakes today, with lake breezes moving over our area from Lake Superior and Lake MI by this afternoon. We may have some convection fire back up over the far east and by the convergence of the Lake Superior/Lake MI lake breeze over the east this afternoon; however, given the lack of consistent signal within the CAMs of this solution occurring, kept precip chances low at around 20-30 percent. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday) Issued at 325 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2023 Expect a pretty quiet and seasonable to summer-like stretch of weather Friday into early next week. Upper troughing over the Upper Lakes will continue to shift eastward Friday through Saturday with surface ridging establishing itself across the area over the weekend into early next week. Lingering effects from upper trough and daily lake breezes Friday and Saturday could be enough for a diurnally driven shra or tsra over the eastern half of the U.P. each of those days but coverage will be limited. Elsewhere expect dry weather with a warming trend Friday into next week. Temperatures may top out above 90 across the interior by the 4th of the July. Next upper trough and cold front will approach the area by Tuesday night into Wednesday. Timing of this will have to be monitored for any fireworks displays Tuesday evening as potential will be there for scattered shras and tsras with its passage. NBM pops bring rain chances in too quickly on Tuesday and trimmed those back some. Scattered shras and tsras will linger through the middle of next week along with a return to seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 109 AM EDT FRI JUN 30 2023 Isold/sct -shra/tsra associated with a disturbance moving across the Upper Great Lakes have exited to the e of the terminals. In its wake, VFR should prevail thru the fcst period at IWD, though there may be some MVFR fog overnight. At CMX, with winds becoming westerly overnight and with fog over western Lake Superior, expect conditions to fall to LIFR overnight. Improvement back to VFR should occur by Fri aftn. At SAW, fog will likely become more dense overnight, leading to conditions falling to IFR. Improvement back to VFR expected late morning or early aftn. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 325 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2023 Winds will remain below 20 knots into the middle of next week. One more disturbance moving across the Lake tonight will result in a few shras and tsra over the west and central part of the Lake. After the widespread rain from last night and a sufficiently moist low level airmass patchy fog will linger across the Lake through Friday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for LSZ162-263>267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...MZ