141 FXUS63 KDDC 300544 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 ...Updated Aviation Section... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 An isolated hail and wind risk will be present late this afternoon and in the extreme western sections of the area before decaying thunderstorms spreading eastward through the early and late evening, as far east as Liberal Dodge City and Hays. The environment is similar to yesterday in term of shear and CAPE, which was able to produce storms with golf ball hail in the area. A stationary front existing from northeast to southwest will provide additional focus for moisture pooling and a ribbon of much higher instability/CAPE as evening approaches. South east sections of the area, like Pratt Comanche and Medicine lodge will not likely see any storms this evening or overnight. Based on HREF means, the strongest thunderstorm outflow looks to be confined to areas west of a Ness City to Liberal Line, suggesting any convection farther east will probably pose mainly a heavy rain and lighting risk after 8 pm This evening (Thursday). Meanwhile the upper pattern remaining slowly progressive, the upper trough will move closer to western Kansas on Friday resulting in higher shear values, and better opportunity for organization, although not necessarily better SBCAPE. A large geographic area should experience convection, some severe with similar threats of hail and wind on Friday afternoon, spreading eastward through the early evening much farther east than this evening, into central Kansas. NBM probabilities are already producing 70 percent chances for pcpn over a large section at 7 pm Friday. While flash flooding is not a high risk the excessive rainfall outlook is in the marginal category Friday evening – a risk of localized flash flooding primarily affecting places that can experience rapid runoff with heavy rainfall. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks are quite optimistic on additional rains for the area – as the entire area is “leaning above” normal at near the 50 percent chance for above normal rainfall exists the first week, and then still leaning above normal at 50 percent chance of above normal rains through week 2 east of a Scott City- Meade line, an area where the long term drought would benefit most from heavy rains. The latest drought monitor has dwindled the most severe intensity category of D4 (Exceptional Drought) to the smoky hill rive area in Rush/Ness/Trego and Ellis counties. To support the outlooks, a glance at the CMC and GFS ensemble mean Total QPF Plume across the next 2 weeks brings 3 inches to Hays. The members largely clustered are in the 2 to 4 inch camp, and even the driest of scenarios will bring at least an additional inch of rain in those areas. Likewise the hotter temps in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees aren’t seemingly as likely to last long in this extended period either. A ramp up toward hot temps and apparent temperature again on Monday and Tuesday looks possible before the ensemble means take a considerable nosedive midweek and beyond suggesting a cap for high in the upper 80s to low 90s - which is in the cool side of climatology for this time of year. That said, some uncertainty still exists with respect to the range of outcomes as the 75th to 25th as well as outlying whiskers broaden significantly midweek. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 A small mesoscale convective system (MCS) was affecting the HYS terminal at the onset of this new TAF period, but thunderstorm activity will wane after the first couple of hours. At all terminals, winds will become light with VFR flight category forecast. Additional overnight showers and thunderstorms across west central and northwest Kansas are expected to remain north of GCK and HYS. Light winds will prevail much of the day Friday with additional thunderstorm development late afternoon into the evening as the main upper level storm system approaches western Kansas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 69 90 62 85 / 10 10 70 20 GCK 66 86 60 83 / 20 20 70 10 EHA 67 87 59 83 / 30 30 60 10 LBL 68 87 61 84 / 10 10 70 10 HYS 67 90 63 84 / 20 30 70 30 P28 75 98 68 89 / 10 10 60 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Umscheid