294 
FXUS62 KKEY 300243
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1043 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

A more active evening across the Florida Keys as convection across
the southern and southwestern mainland drifted into our waters and
is now steadily marching southwest across the Middle and Lower
Keys. Most of this activity has dwindled since leaving the
mainland but there were a couple of thunderstorms that were
overachievers. Where it has managed rain, temperatures have
responded accordingly, falling into the lower 80s. The Lower Keys
remain the only holdouts at this time. Outside of any convection,
winds are light and variable but tending to favor from the west. 

Given the ongoing precipitation, will not make any changes to the
going forecast. Once this initial wave passes through we will see
a break and will have to watch for additional showers and/or
thunderstorms to re-develop late overnight as winds veer around to
the east and slightly southeast. This will gradually begin adding
more moisture to the low levels.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1040 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are moving southwest across
mainly the southeast Gulf waters. Mariners can expect higher winds
and seas in and around these showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise,
there are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect.
From synopsis, light to gentle, generally variable breezes will 
persist across the Florida Keys coastal waters, becoming east to 
southeast by Friday night. Early Saturday, breezes will freshen, 
as the southern end of a low- to mid- level trough becomes pinched
between Atlantic and Gulf ridges of high pressure. Somewhat above
average rain chances will result in unsettled weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Convection is waning across the MTH terminal with VFR conditions
returning. Confidence remains low that showers and storms will
impact the EYW terminal overnight. Therefore will keep mentions of
VCSH/TS out of the forecast for now. Otherwise, surface winds will
continue to remain light and variable at times.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....AJP

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