174 FXUS64 KEPZ 200936 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 336 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 248 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will be the theme through the week with triple digit temperatures for the El Paso area and surrounding desert lowlands. Temperatures will slowly climb each day heading through the week and into the weekend, with the continuation of a prolonged heat event. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Forecast Changes: Added Southern Dona Ana County and the Salt Basin of Hudspeth County to the Heat Advisory today through at least Friday. Starting tomorrow, the southern and northern Tularosa Basin has been added to the Advisory. Forecast Overview: Increasing heat continues to be the story across the Borderland as we go into the work week and weekend. Upper level high pressure, currently over NE'rn Mexico will dominate the forecast this week as it slowly moves north and west, centering near the Borderland by then end of next weekend. This unfortunately means that rising heights will assist in the in the slow increase of very hot temperatures as the UL high draws near and H85 WAA persists. Changes to the existing Heat Advisory with the El Paso metro is mentioned above, with expansion to much of the lowlands expected this weekend when the heat becomes especially intense. The HeatRisk product has parts of Las Cruces and the El Paso metro in major risk of heat related impacts on Saturday and Sunday. Reaching at/above 105 daily in the hottest lowland locations will not be out of the question, especially after Wednesday and highs will continue to rise through the weekend. Don't expect overnight temperatures to provide relief from the heat as we'll be close to beating the record high minT at (at least) ELP several days this week. As for wind, an upper level jet in the NW flow around the high will remain overhead, occasionally combining with lee troughing (increased surface pressure gradient), keeping afternoons breezy. This will mainly affect areas west of the Rio Grande River, and especially the Gila Region. Sub-tropical moisture will advect under and around the ridge from the SE, bringing the only rain chances (albeit low-end) to far SE Hudspeth County Tuesday thru Friday. Otherwise the forecast is dry. Taking a quick look at extended models, the heat impacts look to continue through the end of June. The 'Maysoon' has given way to the June 'Nonsoon". && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 248 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023 VFR conditions with variable high clouds (200-250). Winds will will remain light through the night, generally AOB 10 knots. Winds will pick up again to around 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots in the afternoon. Direction will favor 230-280. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 248 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Dry and breezy west/southwest flow regime will remain in place through the week. Min RHs will remain below 15% for elevations below 6500 feet with higher elevations between 15-20% for today. In general, most areas will stay below 15 percent MinRH through the rest of the week/weekend with breezy afternoon winds creating continued elevated fire weather concerns. Overnight recoveries won't rebound much, likely staying below 35% each night. The focus of the stronger winds will be the NM Bootheel and Gila/Lincoln National Forest. Max vent rates excellent through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 104 78 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 97 72 98 69 / 10 10 10 20 Las Cruces 102 71 103 70 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 100 70 101 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 77 55 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 98 68 100 69 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 89 62 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 101 65 101 64 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 97 64 98 64 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 101 74 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 103 68 104 67 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 104 72 107 71 / 10 10 10 10 Loma Linda 94 71 95 70 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 103 72 105 72 / 10 10 0 10 Santa Teresa 100 68 101 69 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 100 78 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 99 68 100 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 100 66 101 65 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 100 71 101 71 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 99 69 100 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 89 61 90 60 / 0 0 10 0 Mescalero 87 58 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 86 58 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 86 58 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 94 65 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 98 65 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 89 57 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 96 61 96 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 97 50 98 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 91 58 91 59 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 94 65 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 99 63 99 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 99 66 100 65 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 98 65 99 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 93 66 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Friday night for TXZ418-419-421- 423-424. NM...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Friday night for NMZ411. Heat Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to midnight MDT Friday night for NMZ412-413. && $$ 33