493 FXUS64 KLUB 161745 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1245 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Low cloud cover is expected to develop early this morning over portions of the far southern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. Forecast soundings indicate saturated profiles up to around 2000 ft with a 5-6C inversion above that up to around 4000 ft, trapping the cloud cover underneath it. This looks to remain mostly in place until early afternoon as low level northwesterly flow weakens. As such, high temperatures will remain in the 80s across the aforementioned area with mostly sunny skies and low-to-mid 90s elsewhere. A mid-upper level ridge will move over the region through Friday afternoon before a trailing trough begins to have more influence by the evening hours. This will lead to slightly increased cloud cover and warmer overnight lows, however no associated precipitation is expected through Saturday morning. Winds are expected to be lighter than yesterday, out of the north at around 10 mph this morning before gradually switching to southeasterly by this afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The trend for the extended continues to feature very warm conditions across the forecast area. A weak shortwave aloft Saturday afternoon will help to enhance lee cyclogenesis and a surface dryline over the South Plains. However, models are inconsistent with how far east the dryline will mix through the day. A few HiRes models and the NAM 3k only mix the dryline to about the I-27 corridor and thus initiate storms during the afternoon hours. Slight chance PoPs were added to the forecast to convey this potential. Looking at a few soundings, there is another caveat with the storm potential for Saturday afternoon. A layer of warm air above the surface may lead to a strong inversion that could keep the environment capped through the afternoon and lower any chances for substantial storms to develop. If a storm or two can develop, severe storms are not out of the question with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main threats. A weak surface cold front will sweep south across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, but give way to a wind shift to the north and no major changes in temperatures. Sunday, the pattern will transition with an upper ridge building over Mexico and an upper low over the southeast CONUS while several lows transition over the Pacific NW into Canada through next week. There is a potential for some weak disturbances in the ridge aloft, which may give way to a few shots at precipitation next week. As mentioned before, temperatures will remain warm in the 90s through much of the extended. Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest with much of the forecast area approaching triple digits and potential heat advisory criteria, especially across the southern South Plains. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 VFR conditions will continue through this TAF period. Winds will generally remain light through the day as well. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...58