599 FXUS65 KVEF 092000 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 100 PM PDT Fri Jun 9 2023 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain probable across the Sierra and Southern Great Basin through Saturday. Another weather system will move into the region over the weekend. This system will bring increased precipitation chances, breezy southwesterly winds, and cooler temperatures to the region. Temperatures will begin increasing beyond Tuesday with near normal temperatures for the second half of the week. && .DISCUSSION...through next Friday. Current satellite and water vapor imagery shows an upper-level shortwave trough over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. This system will gradually lift north and weaken throughout the day as a cut-off low begins to dig along the West Coast. Even with the shortwave weakening and moving out of the area, it will manage to provide us with enough lift to kick off showers and thunderstorms in the higher elevations of Lincoln, Nye, Esmeralda, and Inyo Counties. Lightning and gusty outflow winds will be the primary threats with any storms that develop. Any convection that manages to get going will diminish shortly after sunset due to the loss of daytime heating. Precipitation chances will begin to increase on Saturday, becoming more widespread on Sunday as the aforementioned cut-off low moves on shore and into our forecast area. Precipitation chances will linger into the first half of the week as the low churns directly overhead on Monday before clearing out Monday evening/Tuesday morning. Outside of increased precipitation chances associated with this system, we will also see breezy southwesterly winds pick up across the region over the weekend along with temperatures around 10 degrees below normal on Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday/Wednesday, we will see 500 mb heights begin rising in the wake of the low pressure system. This will allow for temperatures to rebound back up to near normal temperatures during the latter half of the week. The Las Vegas Area will have another shot at their first 100 degree day of the year on Thursday and Friday. The 13Z NBM boasts a 15% chance of hitting or exceeding 100 on Thursday, with a 18% chance on Friday. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southeast winds ranging from 100-140 degrees are expected for much of the afternoon. Speeds will generally be 8-12kts, but could occasionally gusts up to 15kts. Winds will turn more to the southwest after sunset and increase slightly to 8-12kts through midnight before becoming light and variable overnight and early Saturday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the evening with FEW-SCT cigs AOA 10kft, followed by increasing high clouds overnight into Saturday morning. On Saturday, look for light winds in the morning with increasing southeast winds after 17z with speeds 8-12kts. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Winds will generally be southeast to south over most areas through this afternoon with speeds 15 kts or less. Light winds overnight with winds shifting more to the south to southwest in the afternoon with speeds 10-20kts. A few scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible again this afternoon across far northern areas, and localized gusty outflow winds and convective turbulence will be possible near this activity. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon with FEW-SCT cigs AOA 10kft, followed by increasing high clouds west to east overnight into Saturday morning. Thunderstorms will mainly be limited to areas of central Nevada Saturday. && && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stessman AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter