694 FXUS64 KLZK 310748 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 248 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night ) Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 A blocking pattern continues to promote summerlike/stagnant conditions locally, with mostly dry weather, above average temperatures, and a light east/southeast wind. Troughing is noted along the west/east coasts, with ridging in the middle of the country. At the surface, while high pressure is slowly weakening, it is still the dominant weather feature. Over time, moisture levels will slowly increase, and this will lead to at least some rain. Precipitation looks spotty this afternoon, and mainly confined to northwest sections of Arkansas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be a bit more widespread on Thursday, with small rain chances across the northern half of the state. As far as rainfall coverage/amounts, it is nothing terribly exciting, but at least it is something. A few spots could pick up over a quarter inch of liquid. This is promising considering how wet to very wet the landscape was two to three weeks ago, and now we are counting drops. Little Rock has received only 0.13 inch of rain since May 11th, with a monthly deficit over three inches. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 A more active pattern will be seen for part of the long term period as ridging aloft weakens...and an upper shortwave to the west drifts east towards AR. The main upper trough will remain west of AR however...though this will bring increased chances for diurnally driven afternoon convection each day through the weekend. With the upper trough drifting briefly east for the first part of the long term period... best POPs for afternoon convection will be on Fri and Sat as the upper trough will be closest. However...most areas will still see some chances for afternoon isolated/widely scattered convection...but best POPs will be across WRN sections. The threat for organized strong/SVR storms looks to remain low through the period...but a brief strong/SVR storm could be seen. Locally heavy rainfall may also be seen...but widespread heavy rainfall is not expected. By Sun...POPs begin to decrease as the upper shortwave moves away from the region...with less focus for any convection. Even so...some diurnally driven convection will still be possible. On Mon into Mon night...a weak front will drop SW into the state from the NE...with a return to drier weather for the end of the forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period. High clouds will be noted across the state with small chances of showers Wednesday afternoon. Showers will be spotty, and most focused in northern/western sections of the state. Winds will be light/variable overnight and east/southeast at 4 to 8 knots on Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 89 66 89 67 / 10 10 20 10 Camden AR 87 66 87 67 / 10 10 10 0 Harrison AR 84 62 85 63 / 30 10 30 10 Hot Springs AR 89 66 89 67 / 10 10 20 10 Little Rock AR 90 69 90 70 / 10 10 20 10 Monticello AR 89 67 90 69 / 0 0 20 10 Mount Ida AR 88 63 88 64 / 10 10 20 0 Mountain Home AR 87 63 87 65 / 20 10 30 10 Newport AR 88 68 89 69 / 10 10 20 10 Pine Bluff AR 88 68 89 69 / 10 0 20 10 Russellville AR 89 66 89 67 / 10 10 20 10 Searcy AR 89 66 90 67 / 10 10 20 10 Stuttgart AR 88 69 89 69 / 10 10 20 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...46 LONG TERM....62 AVIATION...46