590 
FXUS63 KABR 310150 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
850 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Watching convection across western SD, especially over southwest
SD where better instability and shear exist. Some of this 
activity looks to bleed into the southwest counties over the next 
few hours, potentially remaining on the strong side with gusty 
winds being the main threat. Made some adjustments to PoPs to 
account for this, and may have to raise the southwest even more if
current activity holds together like latest runs of the HRRR are 
suggesting.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Weak southwest flow will continue tonight and into Wednesday. A few 
cu have popped up in the eastern portion of the forecast area, 
otherwise pretty quiet so far today. Lack of any forcing or shear to 
support growth evident. Activity from western SD and NE will move 
into the Missouri River valley and west this evening bringing in 
small chances of thunderstorms through 06Z tonight. 

Deterministic models are in fair agreement of a small shortwave to 
move up from the intermountain west tonight and into eastern SD 
Wednesday. This will be the focus of the next round of thunderstorms 
for the region. However, with the weak shear aloft it will be hard 
to get anything organized for a long period of time. A few pulse type 
storms likely however. SPC only has area in general thunder as well. 
Pops may be on high side for Wednesday, but still expect a good 
portion of the are to get wet.

Temps will remain above normal for late May.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

The main forecast challenge in the extended revolves around 
precipitation chances. The upper level pattern will feature ridging 
to the east and a low pressure trough over the Rockies Thursday, 
with the high to the east then meandering its way back to the west 
Friday, and becoming the main feature over the Northern Plains 
through the remainder of the period. 

At the surface, the pattern of high pressure to the east and low 
pressure to the west will be in place through the entire period, 
with southerly flow bringing warm and moist air into the region. The 
warm temperatures and high dewpoints will lead to periods of fairly 
unstable conditions each day, along with the potential for scattered 
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, with quieter 
conditions during the overnight hours. Therefore, much of the 
extended period continues to be riddled with slight chance to chance 
POPs. 

High temperatures will be mainly in the 80s through the period, with 
overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. However,
threat for isolated -TSRA/TSRA or -SHRA/SHRA exists this evening
for KMBG/KPIR, then later in the TAF period for KABR/KATY. TEMPO
MVFR VSBY is possible in any heavier downpours, but confidence in
location and overall limited coverage prevents inclusion in TAFs
at this point. Will await any development and/or more immediate
impactful proximity to a TAF site before including TEMPO groups.
Will stick with VC mention at this time.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Scarlett
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...TMT