580 
FXUS64 KTSA 260441
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1141 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 932 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

Isolated showers and storms that have been ongoing this 
evening have dissipated with the loss of daytime heating. 
Patchy mid and high clouds will likely prevail across the 
forecast area overnight. Forecasted overnight lows look
reasonable per latest trends, as do the remaining first
period elements. Updated zones will reflect removal of
evening PoPs.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

The CWA remains awkwardly positioned under the current omega 
block pattern as we transition to a rex block over the E CONUS 
Friday into the weekend. Another round of isolated showers and
some thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon before drier
air is pulled into the area from the northeast this weekend.
As a result, pleasant conditions are expected for the holiday 
weekend with seasonable high temps generally in the 80s and light
winds. Weak southerly flow then returns to the area late in the 
weekend as the blocking pattern breaks down and an upper level 
shortwave slowly moves toward the area from the desert southwest. 
May see another decaying W Oklahoma MCS affect western portions of
the CWA Sunday morning, but much of the area should remain dry.

Beginning on Monday, would expect an increase in afternoon 
PoPs again as moisture advects into the area through the end of 
the period. The ECMWF was generally drier as it attempts to shunt
this feature south and builds another ridge into the area. Other 
solutions keep the trough closer to our area with more rain and 
storms. Given the uncertainty with diverging solutions and minimal
changes to the airmass, will stick with continued slight chance 
to chance PoPs each day, slightly above NBM guidance. The chance 
for showers and storms currently looks to be the highest Tuesday 
through Thursday. Temps should remain near to slightly above 
seasonal averages, though if the ridge pattern verifies next week,
may see hotter temperatures build into the region. Generally 
light winds will prevail through the period.

Rada

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with easterly
winds in the afternoon under 10 kts. A couple of areas of concern
exist however: first, potential for reduced visibilities at
BVO/FYV during the first 6 to 9 hours of the period and second,
potential for thunderstorm impacts from roughly 20Z to 01Z.
Regarding the immediate visibility concerns at BVO/FYV, both sites
are currently sitting at 8 miles with calm winds, but with dew
points trending downward already and drier air expected to
continue to move in from the northeast, will leave any MVFR
visibility mention out for now. Would not be surprised to see a
brief period MVFR conditions, though and will address with 
amendments provided the 05Z observations do not already show such.
As for the thunderstorm concerns in the afternoon, isolated 
coverage will preclude mention in the forecast for now, but the 
sites of greatest concern include BVO/TUL/RVS/FSM given current 
model output. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  84  57  82 /  10  20   0  10 
FSM   63  85  57  84 /   0  20   0   0 
MLC   60  84  57  83 /  10  10   0   0 
BVO   57  84  52  82 /  10  20   0  10 
FYV   58  82  52  81 /   0  20   0   0 
BYV   59  79  50  79 /   0  10   0   0 
MKO   60  82  58  81 /  10  20   0   0 
MIO   60  82  52  79 /  10  20   0   0 
F10   60  82  59  80 /  10  10   0  10 
HHW   63  84  61  82 /  10  20   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22