654 FXUS61 KPHI 250537 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 137 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drop southeastward through our region this evening. High pressure is then forecast to settle over the Great Lakes and the northeastern states for Thursday through Saturday. The high is expected to weaken gradually during the period from Sunday through Wednesday as broad low pressure drifts north and eastward from the southeastern states. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Early overnight mesoanalysis shows that the cold front has cleared our area. The few straggling light showers will dissipate within the next hour to two and give way to dry conditions for the rest of the overnight and through the day on Thursday. Cold advection aloft under northwesterly flow is ongoing and aiding a lingering mid-level cloud deck, though expect that as drier air continues to work in we'll lose this cloud cover around sunrise and give way to a mainly clear sky for Thursday. The only other story of the night so far is the over-performing post-frontal winds. With a tightening gradient and deep mixed layer still around as shown on recent PHL ACARS soundings, sustained values 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph have been common across much of the area. Expect that this will continue until the morning hours when the gradient lessens as does the flow aloft and winds go generally 5-10 mph. Dry weather will continue for Thursday as high pressure noses its way into the area from the Great Lakes region. Mostly clear skies with only some high level cirrus, or a few afternoon cumulus clouds possible. A sea breeze will likely develop in the afternoon and shift winds to the south/southeast along the coast, though the boundary itself may be shunted south some with the prevailing northerly flow. With a very deep mixed layer and dry boundary layer, expect that dew points will drop quickly through the afternoon, likely bottoming out in the low 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A mid level low is forecast to be located over Maine and New Brunswick on Thursday night. The low is expected to drift eastward. We will likely remain under the cyclonic flow associated with the system into Friday. A mid level ridge should develop from the Great Lakes to the northeastern states on Friday night and Saturday. Surface high pressure is anticipated to bring dry weather conditions from Thursday night into Saturday. Scattered clouds are likely for Thursday night, Friday and Friday night. We may see an increase in high and some mid level clouds on Saturday associated with the broad low over the southeastern states. A northeast to east wind around 5 to 10 MPH is expected during the daytime hours on both Friday and Saturday, with the wind decoupling at most locations at night. The onshore flow should keep maximum temperatures mainly in the upper 60s to the middle 70s range, with cooler readings in the elevated terrain and right along the coast. Nighttime lows are expected to favor the 40s and lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Slow change is expected for the period from Saturday night through Wednesday as the mid level blocking pattern gradually begins to break. The ridge across the Great Lakes and the Northeast should weaken slowly. Meanwhile the mid level low is anticipated to progress from the Georgia vicinity on Saturday night to the waters off North Carolina and Virginia by Tuesday and Wednesday. Our chance for precipitation during the period continues to trend slowly downward. It appears as though eastern Pennsylvania, and northern and central New Jersey will remain rain-free for most, if not all the time from Saturday night through Wednesday. We will continue to mention a chance of showers for eastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey, focused mainly from Saturday night through Sunday night. Temperatures are forecast to be seasonable with a slow warming trend. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR. Mid-level cloud cover generally SCT/BKN 060-080 lingering through daybreak. Northerly wind 10-15 kt gusting to 20-25 knots will continue through the overnight hours. High confidence. Thursday...VFR conditions expected. North to northeast winds 5-10 knots, gusts dropping off through the day. High confidence. Outlook... Friday...Mainly VFR. Northeast to east wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence. Saturday...Mainly VFR. Northeast to east wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence. Sunday...Mainly VFR. Northeast to east wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence. Monday...Mainly VFR. Northeast to east wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence. && .MARINE... Tonight through Thursday...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters, mainly for seas, but winds will gust around 25 to 30 kt for a period overnight tonight through mid morning Thursday in the wake of a cold front. Have hoisted a SCA for Delware Bay for 6 hours overnight into early Thursday morning as a result of the period of gusty northerly winds. Winds will diminish steadily thorough the day Thursday. Outlook... Thursday night...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for our ocean waters from Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey to Fenwick Island, Delaware for wave heights around 5 to 6 feet. Friday and Friday night...Wave heights may remain around 5 feet on our ocean waters off Delaware. Saturday through Sunday night...Waves may again build to 5 to 6 feet on our ocean waters from Little Egg Inlet, New Jersey southward due to the northeast flow. Monday...No marine headlines are anticipated. Rip Currents... Tonight, a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents continues for the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. A sea breeze has resulted in an east to southeast wind around 10 mph, then the winds will become north to northeast and increase some through this evening in the wake of a cold front. Waves in the surf zone will be 3-4 feet with an easterly swell. For Thursday, there is a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for both the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. North to northeast winds 10-20 mph will become easterly in the afternoon. Waves in the surf zone are forecast to be 3-5 feet coupled with a stronger easterly swell with a longer period of 8-9 seconds. For Friday, there is MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for both the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. A lighter easterly wind along with waves/swells lower than Thursday should result in a overall reduced rip current risk. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NJZ014-024>026. DE...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for DEZ004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ430- 431. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ451>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Iovino NEAR TERM...Brudy/Dodd/Robertson SHORT TERM...Iovino LONG TERM...Iovino AVIATION...Brudy/Dodd/Iovino/Robertson MARINE...Gorse/Iovino/Robertson